FRIGID WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 24, 2016…11:45 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

The low that brought all the intense, winter weather to the east, finally lifts out.  For this upcoming week, a large trof dips down into the middle of the U.S., and slowly progresses toward the east.  Extremely cold temperatures will remain in place over much of the U.S.  By day 7 (162-168 hours in the forecast period), temperatures will begin to modify to a warmer pattern, mainly over the southern half of the country.  A big factor in this is, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to hit a strong positive phase at the end of the month, into the beginning of February.  An explanation of the AO is posted below the AO graphic.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GFS.STATION162

GFS.STATION.192
ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENT FORECAST
ao.sprd2

ARCTIC OSCILLATION EXPLANATION (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
1000px-Arctic_Oscillation.svg
At the same time this modification occurs, models agree that another area of low pressure should develop off the U.S. east coast in about 120-132 hours.  The models however disagree in strength.  Of note on this low, it appears to be further offshore than the previous low which brought all of the extreme winter weather this past week.

GFS
GFS.132
ECMWF
ECMWF.120

ECMWF.144

GGEM
GGEM.126

Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat over the next 5-7 days.

I will try to update this week, most likely on Wednesday, to see how the pattern is going to progress over the next few days.

REMEMBER…ALL graphics are linked to their respective sites.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

INTELLICAST NWS RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to FRIGID WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 24, 2016…11:45 A.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Hi , Storm, Monty, and all. Wound up with 16″ at my house in Stamford CT. Steep snow gradient to the North. Torrington Ct. About 40 miles N of me got no snow! While NYC, Central Park, about 35 miles to my SW got 26.8″, only 1/10th of an inch off the all time NYC record!! Kennedy Airport got over 30 inches, and many areas in NJ and Pa., and Maryland got 30-40″, some storm!
    I believe Boston, however received only 2-4″. Also winds were quite strong, so the storm did qualify as a Blizzard in the NYC area and NJ. My sister in Sw Va. got about 14″. So it was a BIG Middle Atlantic & extreme S. New England storm.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hope all is well for people that went through historic snow storm. Talked to a friend in BWI. Said they got 20 inches and it was still coming down. Yuck! Pushing 70 right now in IAH. Oh yeah…GO BRONCOS!

    • dellamom says:

      Manning is a MSY boy, so I’m with you on that, Monty. We just came off nights of at or below freezing on the Lake Pontchartrain Northshore, should have a couple days of mid- to upper-60s, nights of low 40s. But Tuesday and Wednesday nights should be at or below freezing again. It will be interesting to see what February brings, because this is usually our February weather.

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