For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Good day everyone!
The low that brought all the intense, winter weather to the east, finally lifts out. For this upcoming week, a large trof dips down into the middle of the U.S., and slowly progresses toward the east. Extremely cold temperatures will remain in place over much of the U.S. By day 7 (162-168 hours in the forecast period), temperatures will begin to modify to a warmer pattern, mainly over the southern half of the country. A big factor in this is, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to hit a strong positive phase at the end of the month, into the beginning of February. An explanation of the AO is posted below the AO graphic.
ARCTIC OSCILLATION EXPLANATION (CLICK ON GRAPHIC)
At the same time this modification occurs, models agree that another area of low pressure should develop off the U.S. east coast in about 120-132 hours. The models however disagree in strength. Of note on this low, it appears to be further offshore than the previous low which brought all of the extreme winter weather this past week.
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat over the next 5-7 days.
I will try to update this week, most likely on Wednesday, to see how the pattern is going to progress over the next few days.
REMEMBER…ALL graphics are linked to their respective sites.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS