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Good day everyone!
Still here…doing well!
As we all know by now, we have had our FIRST Hurricane for 2016. Subtropical Storm ALEX did transition to a tropical entity, and became the first hurricane of the year.
A bit to discuss this afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated a ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF LA…SRN MS…SWRN AL…FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE…
Analysis of information contained in the outlook, along with analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, and upper air maps from regional and global models, indicates the risk areas will be within the left exit region of a strong jet-streak at 250 mb. A combination of strong forcing for ascent, and rapid cooling aloft, will create a fairly unstable environment across the region. The greatest chance for tornadoes will lie within the ENHANCED risk area. I work the next 3 days, so will not have another update during this time. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
Please use the following linked graphics from the SPC for watches and mesoscale discussions, and the NWS Hazard and Warning map further on in this discussion, for up to date information. You MUST mouse over and click on the graphic for updated information.
Analysis of global and regional modeling this morning indicates the low which will bring the severe weather mentioned above, will move NEWD and eject off the eastern seaboard by this weekend. Models seem to agree on a general position of centering this low, off the coast of VA/NC border area. There is some disagreement as to how close to the coast this runs in the modeling. However there appears to be good agreement that this will cause some problems along the east coast from the tidewater area, up to the coastal NJ and Cape Cod areas.
Based on analysis of the models, sustained winds of strong tropical storm force of 50-60 knots, possibly some small pockets to hurricane force depending on deepening, may be experienced along these areas mentioned. Regardless, given the close proximity to the coast of this system, and wind direction, wind driven waves will be pushed toward shore, and coastal areas facing these NW-NNW winds should experience some coastal flooding and erosion, especially at the times of high tide. Current sea height projections from the STORMSURF model page indicate some areas south of the Long Island area could experience some seas of up to 26-28 ft. as the low moves toward the NE.
ALL of the following graphics are linked.
As this low moves up from the SE, snow and wintry precipitation should begin early in the morning on Friday for a small portion of the SE over the TN/MS Valley areas, and spreading northward into the Tidewater, Mid Atlantic, and Piedmont regions by the afternoon.
The following are the current projected snowfall accumulation amounts from 84-96 hours out, based on the NAM, GFS and GGEM models. Amounts can vary depending on strength and actual track of the system. Please click on the NWS Hazards and Warnings display for information pertinent to your area.
Again, I have to work over the next 3 days. If time permits, I will try to have an update Sunday on the coastal storm.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS