SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / INTENSE COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 20, 2016…1:30 P.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Still here…doing well!

As we all know by now, we have had our FIRST Hurricane for 2016.  Subtropical Storm ALEX did transition to a tropical entity, and became the first hurricane of the year.

A bit to discuss this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has designated a ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS MUCH OF LA…SRN MS…SWRN AL…FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1200

Analysis of information contained in the outlook, along with analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software forecast soundings, and upper air maps from regional and global models, indicates the risk areas will be within the left exit region of a strong jet-streak at 250 mb.  A combination of strong forcing for ascent, and rapid cooling aloft, will create a fairly unstable environment across the region. The greatest chance for tornadoes will lie within the ENHANCED risk area.  I work the next 3 days, so will not have another update during this time.  IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

Please use the following linked graphics from the SPC for watches and mesoscale discussions, and the NWS Hazard and Warning map further on in this discussion,  for up to date information.  You MUST mouse over and click on the graphic for updated information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY
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Analysis of global and regional modeling this morning indicates the low which will bring the severe weather mentioned above, will move NEWD and eject off the eastern seaboard by this weekend.  Models seem to agree on a general position of centering this low, off the coast of VA/NC border area.  There is some disagreement as to how close to the coast this runs in the modeling.  However there appears to be good agreement that this will cause some problems along the east coast from the tidewater area, up to the coastal NJ and Cape Cod areas. 

ECMWF
ECMWF.96

ECMWF.120
GFS
GFS72

GFS.90
GGEM
GGEM.72

GGEM.96

Based on analysis of the models, sustained winds of strong tropical storm force of 50-60 knots, possibly some small pockets to hurricane force depending on deepening, may be experienced along these areas mentioned.  Regardless, given the close proximity to the coast of this system, and wind direction, wind driven waves will be pushed toward shore, and coastal areas facing these NW-NNW winds should experience some coastal flooding and erosion, especially at the times of high tide.  Current sea height projections from the STORMSURF model page indicate some areas south of the Long Island area could experience some seas of up to 26-28 ft. as the low moves toward the NE.

ALL of the following graphics are linked.

 

SEA HEIGHT
eus_height_90hr
WIND
eus_wind_90hr

OPC FORECASTS
atl_offshore_800px

As this low moves up from the SE, snow and wintry precipitation should begin early in the morning on Friday for a small portion of the SE over the TN/MS Valley areas, and spreading northward into the Tidewater, Mid Atlantic, and Piedmont regions by the afternoon.

The following are the current projected snowfall accumulation amounts from 84-96 hours out, based on the NAM, GFS and GGEM models.  Amounts can vary depending on strength and actual track of the system.  Please click on the NWS Hazards and Warnings display for information pertinent to your area.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS
NAM.84SNOW

GFS.96.SNOW

GGEM.SNOW.96

Again, I have to work over the next 3 days.  If time permits, I will try to have an update Sunday on the coastal storm.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

INTELLICAST NWS RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / INTENSE COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 20, 2016…1:30 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    The worst of the weather passed us here in southern St. Tammany Parish, but I do not believe those to our north were as lucky. I hope all is well with you, LT. Storm, thank you again.

  2. Richard Scalan says:

    Interesting weather!! Hurricane ALEX one week, blizzard of the century the next! And, a tornado or such thrown in as well! Keep safe ALL. Prayers are with you.

  3. dellamom says:

    Mac, it looks like we are now in the center of an enhanced area. From the way I read the report, it seems like things are going to steadily get worse all day, with a really bad evening. I will be at work in Madisonville through mid-evening and then headed to Mandeville. EEEKK! Prayers to Mac, LT, Monty and our Mobile guys. It seems all of us are going to get something. Storm, thank you for providing this site and the forum so we have more tools with which to prepare and to protect ourselves.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for posting this report, know you are busy, and recovering from not feeling well. –Yes, Monty, I am right on the northern borderline between Blizzard conditions, with heavy snow, to nothing too much, with maybe 1-3″! Just don’t know yet. A tiny shift in the track of the low , like 50 miles or so, will make a huge difference. There will be a sharp “cut-off” to the precipitation shield on the N side of the storm. Definitely NJ south to Wash. D.C. and west into most of Virginia will get “clobbered”, 1-2 feet at least.!! I’ll report in as to what I’m getting on Saturday.

  5. Monty says:

    Stay safe Dellamom and Mac! You too LT. Looks like you have a monster headed in that general direction.

  6. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm! Watching this low very carefully. Like dellamom, we have a spot – a powder room with no walls or windows on the exterior of the house and is below a second floor bedroom – to run to when the time comes.

  7. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. We will be right in the middle of it. I already know where in the office I am gonna run to if a tornado comes.

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