INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EST…JAN. 13, 2016

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SPECIAL UPDATE…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EST…JAN. 13, 2016:

The NHC in Miami has increased the probability of INVEST 90L becoming a cyclone to HIGH (70%), and may begin initiation of advisories later today.

NHC GRAPHICAL TWO
two_atl_5d0

Good day everyone!

Satellite loop images this morning indicate convection, albeit limited in nature, continues to slowly build and wrap around the “center” of INVEST 90L in the far eastern Atlantic.

RAMSDIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY INVEST 90L
tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

Information contained in the 12Z ATCF FTP product provided the following on INVEST 90L:

LOCATED: 26.0N…32.5W
MOVEMENT: ENE 12 MPH
PRESSURE: 989 MB / 29.21 IN.
MAXIMUM WIND: 50 MPH

INVEST 90L has begun to turn more toward the ENE in the last few satellite loop frames.  Based on the current forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue for most of today, with a turn toward the northeast by tomorrow, then northward, tracking over the Azores islands.  The following is model guidance from COAMPS:

INVEST 90L TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
2016011300.000_track_g1

Analysis of current and forecast shear information indicates wind shear should continue to weaken over the next 24-36 hours, and this would be the time frame, if 90L is going to transition to sub-tropical. Should the trend of increasing convection around the center continue, the NHC could very well name this system, and if so, would be named Alex.  Again, this will remain to be seen, and will be based on NHC criteria and forecaster judgement.  Regardless, shipping interests should monitor the progress of this low, as well as residents of the Azores islands, during the next 48-72 hours.

Elsewhere, global models indicate an offshore low to develop, which could remain close enough to the eastern seaboard to cause problems off the Tidewater area, to New England area waters.  The GFS is a little slower in its solution, with the ECMWF and GGEM, moving this low a little quicker to the NE.

GFS
GFS.84
ECMWF
ECMWF.96
GGEM
GGEM.84
The following are sea height and wind projections from the STORMSURF model page

SEA HEIGHT
eus_height_30hr
WIND
eus_wind_78hr

I have to work during the next 3 days, so I will not be able to update on this coastal/offshore low.  Please refer to the Ocean Prediction Center forecasts, and NWS Hazards map, which are linked.

OPC FORECASTS
atl_offshore_800px

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to INVEST 90L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EST…JAN. 13, 2016

  1. originallt says:

    Hey Monty, I don’t think so. If the El Nino relaxes and especially if we are transitioning to a La Nina by summer, it should be more active than last year. But as they say, We’ll see. We will have Storm to “break it down” for us. 🙂

    • Monty says:

      Yeah LT. I was thinking El Nino might stick around through this Summer. Not sure.

      • Monty and LT,

        Out of season storms are really no indication of how busy or inactive a season may be. IRT the El Nino demise…the activity for the 2016 season, will basically depend on how quick we return to “neutral” conditions, and how quick the atmosphere reacts to the transition…the “teleconnection” we speak of a lot. However, given the El Nino “should weaken, I do believe at the moment, that this upcoming season will be a little more active, seeings how we just had a total of 11 name systems during a strong El Nino pattern. The shorter term average as far as total named systems is 12.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Crazy stuff. Think 2016 Atlantic season might blow itself out early?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, hope you are, and continue to feel better. Yeah, quite remarkable , we have sub-tropical storm Alex out there!1 In January.

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