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SPECIAL UPDATE…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EST…JAN. 13, 2016:
The NHC in Miami has increased the probability of INVEST 90L becoming a cyclone to HIGH (70%), and may begin initiation of advisories later today.
Good day everyone!
Satellite loop images this morning indicate convection, albeit limited in nature, continues to slowly build and wrap around the “center” of INVEST 90L in the far eastern Atlantic.
MOVEMENT: ENE 12 MPH
PRESSURE: 989 MB / 29.21 IN.
MAXIMUM WIND: 50 MPH
INVEST 90L has begun to turn more toward the ENE in the last few satellite loop frames. Based on the current forecast steering, I expect this motion to continue for most of today, with a turn toward the northeast by tomorrow, then northward, tracking over the Azores islands. The following is model guidance from COAMPS:
Analysis of current and forecast shear information indicates wind shear should continue to weaken over the next 24-36 hours, and this would be the time frame, if 90L is going to transition to sub-tropical. Should the trend of increasing convection around the center continue, the NHC could very well name this system, and if so, would be named Alex. Again, this will remain to be seen, and will be based on NHC criteria and forecaster judgement. Regardless, shipping interests should monitor the progress of this low, as well as residents of the Azores islands, during the next 48-72 hours.
Elsewhere, global models indicate an offshore low to develop, which could remain close enough to the eastern seaboard to cause problems off the Tidewater area, to New England area waters. The GFS is a little slower in its solution, with the ECMWF and GGEM, moving this low a little quicker to the NE.
I have to work during the next 3 days, so I will not be able to update on this coastal/offshore low. Please refer to the Ocean Prediction Center forecasts, and NWS Hazards map, which are linked.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS