SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FORECAST…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…JAN. 12, 2016

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UPDATE: As of 11:00 a.m. EST, the ATCF system has upgraded the gale center in the NE Atlantic to INVEST 90L:

20160112.1545.goes13.x.vis1km_high.90LINVEST.45kts-990mb-248N-379W.100pc

Good day everyone!

The current surface analysis map from the NHC TAFB indicates the gale center I am monitoring may have weakened slightly.  However, current satellite loop imagery indicates this system may be trying to transition to sub-tropical cyclone status, as a flareup of convection was noted this morning in satellite imagery, located just on the eastern edge of the gale center.

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS 06Z
USA_06Z

NOAA NE ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-lneatl

GOES NASA INTERACTIVE SATELLITE (STILL IMAGE)
GOES14452016012zmdtd2

Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and sst maps, this system has approximately a 48 hour window to transition, before the forecast track takes it over much cooler water.

Analysis of various global models, combined with current satellite motion, indicates this low should begin to track more toward the east today, eventually turning toward the NNE, and should begin to affect the Azores islands in about 60-72 hours.  The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will not update again until 2:00 p.m. this afternoon, so the probability is still held at MEDIUM (40%).

GFS
GFS.SUBT

ECMWF
ECMWF.SUBT.
The following animated graphics (mouse over and click) is the current projection from the WAVEWATCH model page.

WAVEWATCH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
N_atlantic.u10.f033h

WAVEWATCH WAVE HEIGHT
N_atlantic.hs.h006h

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.

Minimum temperatures across the U.S. will continue to fluctuate somewhat during the next 72-96 hours, and by day 5 in the forecast period, extremely cold temperatures will grip the country, as the AO continues to plunge negative, allowing for freezing temperatures to plummet very far south.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GFS.STATION

GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURE
GGEM156.2M.TEMP

ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX (AO)
ao.sprd2

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FORECAST…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…JAN. 12, 2016

  1. dellamom says:

    LT, I saw where you may be in or near some winter precipitation this week. Stay safe.

  2. dellamom says:

    Good morning, Storm. Somehow, I don’t expect to read in January that tropical storm formation is not expected elsewhere, but I am very happy that it is not occurring here. Our weather is out of whack here. Usually in January we are in a warm-up between the December and February freezes. Maybe it has something to do with Mardi Gras being so early this year. Parades have already started.

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