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UPDATE: As of 11:00 a.m. EST, the ATCF system has upgraded the gale center in the NE Atlantic to INVEST 90L:
Good day everyone!
The current surface analysis map from the NHC TAFB indicates the gale center I am monitoring may have weakened slightly. However, current satellite loop imagery indicates this system may be trying to transition to sub-tropical cyclone status, as a flareup of convection was noted this morning in satellite imagery, located just on the eastern edge of the gale center.
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and sst maps, this system has approximately a 48 hour window to transition, before the forecast track takes it over much cooler water.
Analysis of various global models, combined with current satellite motion, indicates this low should begin to track more toward the east today, eventually turning toward the NNE, and should begin to affect the Azores islands in about 60-72 hours. The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook will not update again until 2:00 p.m. this afternoon, so the probability is still held at MEDIUM (40%).
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.
Minimum temperatures across the U.S. will continue to fluctuate somewhat during the next 72-96 hours, and by day 5 in the forecast period, extremely cold temperatures will grip the country, as the AO continues to plunge negative, allowing for freezing temperatures to plummet very far south.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS