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Good day everyone!
Been out for a little due to my crazy work schedule, and finally fully recovering from my illness.
Well, a little something unusual in the picture. A non tropical low, producing gales of up to 60 mph, is located in the Atlantic Ocean, approximately 800-900 miles SW of the Azores islands. Satellite loop imagery indicates a small, better defined low pressure center this afternoon, however not much change in the amount of limited convection around and near the center.
Based on current steering and satellite motion, this low continues to move toward the SE. Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, and global model analysis, I expect this low to continue toward the SE during the next 48-60 hours. After this time, the low should begin a more easterly movement, and eventually by days 4-5, begin to track toward the NE and eventually over the Azores islands.
Analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may relax just enough, with a forecast divergent pattern, to allow for a transition to sub-tropical or tropical status. Based on the forecast upper pattern, and SST’s in the forecast path, a transition to sub-tropical seems more likely. However, in my analysis of these parameters, it would appear this low would have the greater possibility of transition within the next 48-60 hours, prior to encountering cooler SST’s. The NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook as of 2:00 p.m. EST indicates a MEDIUM (40%) probability of sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
Based on the recent Cyclone Phase Evolution Diagram (GFS SOLUTION SHOWN), the low is designated as a shallow warm core system. The surface analysis graphic from the NHC TAFB indicates this gale center to be associated with an occluded frontal boundary. Based on these two parameters, my conclusion is this system is warm core due to a warm seclusion process.
NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
This gale should remain a threat, only to shipping over the next 72 hours, and should begin to affect the Azores islands within the next 90-96 hours. Should this low attain sub-tropical or tropical characteristics, it would become the first named system for 2016, and would be dubbed Alex.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS