SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…JAN. 11, 2016…ISSUED 3:45 P.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Been out for a little due to my crazy work schedule, and finally fully recovering from my illness.

Well, a little something unusual in the picture.  A non tropical low, producing gales of up to 60 mph, is located in the Atlantic Ocean, approximately 800-900 miles SW of the Azores islands.  Satellite loop imagery indicates a small, better defined low pressure center this afternoon, however not much change in the amount of limited convection around and near the center.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1_20160110161500

NOAA NEATL SATELLITE LOOP
avn-lneatl

Based on current steering and satellite motion, this low continues to move toward the SE.  Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, and global model analysis, I expect this low to continue toward the SE during the next 48-60 hours.  After this time, the low should begin a more easterly movement, and eventually by days 4-5, begin to track toward the NE and eventually over the Azores islands.

ECMWF 96 HOUR FORECAST
ECMWF.SUBT.

GFS 96 HOUR FORECAST
GFS.SUBT

Analysis of the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds may relax just enough, with a forecast divergent pattern, to allow for a transition to sub-tropical or tropical status.  Based on the forecast upper pattern, and SST’s in the forecast path, a transition to sub-tropical seems more likely.  However, in my analysis of these parameters, it would appear this low would have the greater possibility of transition within the next 48-60 hours, prior to encountering cooler SST’s.  The NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook as of 2:00 p.m. EST indicates a MEDIUM (40%) probability of sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Based on the recent Cyclone Phase Evolution Diagram (GFS SOLUTION SHOWN), the low is designated as a shallow warm core system.  The surface analysis graphic from the NHC TAFB indicates this gale center to be associated with an occluded frontal boundary.  Based on these two parameters, my conclusion is this system is warm core due to a warm seclusion process. 

CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION
5.phase1

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_12Z
This gale should remain a threat, only to shipping over the next 72 hours, and should begin to affect the Azores islands within the next 90-96 hours.  Should this low attain sub-tropical or tropical characteristics, it would become the first named system for 2016, and would be dubbed Alex.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.

 

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…JAN. 11, 2016…ISSUED 3:45 P.M. EST

  1. PortABeachBum says:

    Glad to see you up and about, Sr.Chief ! Good to have you back! Yes !! Wrong season! Wrong direction! Almost makes you want to see it become a “NAMED STORM !”

  2. Bruce Malo says:

    Now Chief… how strange does it feel posting a subtropical forecast on Jan 11, 2016?? 😅
    And…is it significant that rather than the normal westerly tracks that we see during Hurr Season, this system is moving SE towards the Azores….our jumping off point for the storms we watch during Hurr Season.
    Sorry to hear you were ill. It took me a full 2 weeks to fend off the flu! It’s tough to get old 😅 Happy 2016 ! Bruce in Cape Coral’s Tornado Alley !!

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