WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 04, 2016…11:25 A.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

I’ve been “missing in action” over the past few days, as I have been extremely ill, with enlarged tonsils, acute sinusitis, and fluid trapped in my inner ears.

Analysis of global models this morning does not indicate anything major upcoming over the next few days, as far as major storms are a concern. The SPC does not indicate any severe weather threats over the next 5-7 days as well.

Models indicate the current temperature pattern to remain pretty much the same over the course of the next 2 days, with minimum temperatures beginning to slowly modify in about 48 hours, with a “warm up”? in minimum temps extending northward by 72-96 hours out in this forecast period.

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE STATION INTERPOLATED PLOTS
GFS.STATION48

GFS.STATION.96
GGEM 2 METER TEMPERATURES
GGEM48.2M.TEMP

GGEM96.2M.TEMP
Models are split at the moment, in the upcoming 7-8 day pattern, with the GGEM and FIM models indicating strong low pressure moving along the U.S. east coast IVO the New England/NE areas, while the GFS and ECMWF have a totally different tune.  I’ll be keeping tabs on this, to see which model solution comes to fruition, and will try to update on it.

GFS 174 HOUR MAP
GFS.174
GGEM 168 HOURGGEM.168
GGEM 180 HOUR
GGEM.180

FIM 8
wind_10m_f180

The following are projected 84 hour snowfall accumulation amounts from the NAM and GGEM models:
NAM.84SNOW

GGEMSNOW84

The following graphics are linked to provide you up to date information.

OPC OFFSHORE FORECASTSatl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILLusa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 04, 2016…11:25 A.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, are you feeling better?

  2. originallt says:

    Morning, Stay safe, dellamom, looks like you are being ‘pounded” this Thursday morning.

    • dellamom says:

      Thanks, LT. I am north of Lake Pontchartrain, and I think the Southshore got worse than we did. At my office in Madisonville, we had a brief spate of heavy weather mid-morning, but mostly lighter rain and drizzle off and on otherwise. For daily low temps, we are just coming off near-freezing, with frost requiring plants to be covered. Now we are mid-50s. From Saturday to at least the middle of next week, we are expected to be in the 30s, including one night at 32. Cover the plants, uncover the plants, cover the plants, uncover the plants … And the rain we’ve been having is affecting the crawfish that live on our property, so I have to step around crawfish mounds to get to the plants. It took me a couple weeks to realize the holes in the ground WITHOUT the mounds were snake holes. That was fun! I’d rather have the mounds.

      • originallt says:

        Wow, very interesting.Looks like early this morning, Saturday the 9th, your area in general was hit again with heavy rains and storms.!

        • dellamom says:

          I understand from my husband that it was pretty bad. I slept through it, but the Chihuahua woke him up, so he saw it. We will have three nights of freeze now, so I have to cover all the plants today.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, glad you are feeling well enough to post. Keeping tabs on the modeling up here too. Much “talk ” on Twitter about possible snow storm next week here in the Northeast. Kind of doubt it what with the strength of the EL Nino still out there, and the split flow over the Pacific, and into North America. Looking for more rain, instead. Nino is weakening, but it can take the atmosphere a few weeks to respond in kind.Maybe by Feb.?

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I hope your recovery progresses swiftly. My stepson’s wedding was Saturday and I expect a head cold in the coming days because the bride’s whole family was suffering with very severe colds the week before and at the rehearsal dinner. Your report is appreciated

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