SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK QUICKCAST…ISSUED DEC. 29, 2015…12:20 P.M. EST

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

The SPC does not indicate any severe weather threats during the next 5-7 days.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK OVERVIEW (LINKED)
activity_loop

Analysis of modeling this morning did not indicate any major low pressure systems or winter storms during the next 5 days.  Upon the exit of the current system over the NE, it appears fairly Status Quo. with the exception of rain slated for portions of the south by this weekend.  Form there, very cold temperatures once again begin to plunge southward, and by days 5-6 in the forecast period, lows in the 50’s reach there way into the central Florida Peninsula.  Expect the vast majority of the U.S. to be near, or below freezing within that time frame.

GGEM 2M TEMPERATURES
GGEM.2M.TEMP

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS.STATION

The following are total snowfall accumulation projections from the GFS, GGEM and NAM models during the next 84 hours.

GFS / GGEM / NAM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
GFS.84.SNOW

GGEMSNOW84
NAM.84SNOW

I’ve been trying to pinpoint some good analog years, regarding the projected demise of the current El Nino, in order to come up with a 2016 Hurricane Season Preliminary forecast. However, data is limited at the moment.  Dr. Klotzback and Grey have issued their preliminary report, but confidence is low at the moment.  IF their findings hold, they are looking at the possibility of between 12-15 storms next season.  This would put me at one analog year, or 1998.

CSU DECEMBER QUALITATIVE DISCUSSION
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/dec2015/dec2015.pdf

The following graphics are linked to provide you up to date information.

OPC OFFSHORE FORECASTSatl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

The office will be closed tomorrow and Thursday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK QUICKCAST…ISSUED DEC. 29, 2015…12:20 P.M. EST

  1. originallt says:

    Happy New Year to you all, and Storm really hope you feel better, sorry to hear you’ve been so sick 😦

  2. Happy New Year, all! I haven’t forgotten everyone. Been very, very ill over the past 10 days.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Happy new year Mr storm.I hope your Christmas went well.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Happy New Year Mac…Storm…LT…Dellamom and all!!

    Cloudy and 52 in IAH. We should warm and little before next system hits. Stay dry up there LT!

  5. Mac says:

    Happy New Year Senior Chief!!! Hope everyone has a safe New Year’s eve celebration.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s