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Good day everyone!
The SPC does not indicate any severe weather threats during the next 5-7 days.
Analysis of modeling this morning did not indicate any major low pressure systems or winter storms during the next 5 days. Upon the exit of the current system over the NE, it appears fairly Status Quo. with the exception of rain slated for portions of the south by this weekend. Form there, very cold temperatures once again begin to plunge southward, and by days 5-6 in the forecast period, lows in the 50’s reach there way into the central Florida Peninsula. Expect the vast majority of the U.S. to be near, or below freezing within that time frame.
I’ve been trying to pinpoint some good analog years, regarding the projected demise of the current El Nino, in order to come up with a 2016 Hurricane Season Preliminary forecast. However, data is limited at the moment. Dr. Klotzback and Grey have issued their preliminary report, but confidence is low at the moment. IF their findings hold, they are looking at the possibility of between 12-15 storms next season. This would put me at one analog year, or 1998.
CSU DECEMBER QUALITATIVE DISCUSSION
The following graphics are linked to provide you up to date information.
The office will be closed tomorrow and Thursday.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS