SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…DEC. 27, 2015

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms across portions of ERN TX…WRN AND NRN LA AND SRN AR…

There is a SLIGHT risk FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk FROM CNTRL AND NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS…AND HAIL…WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS…FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING…AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_torn

Based on information contained in both the SPC outlook text, and analysis of mid and upper level wind maps, the affected areas will be under a 90-100 knot 500 mb (mid level) jet, and very close to the left exit region of a 250 mb jetstreak.

Based on analysis of the NAM-WRF, and analysis of forecast sounding parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, utilizing the RAP model, various sounding values, especially the EHI with values of 2-3, STP values ranging from 1-6, and lapse rates of 6.0-6.5, combined with strong vertical wind shear, and the strong mid and upper level jets, the current model run of the RAP indicates tornadoes to be most probable in the following outlined area.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA
f5.rap

Forecast soundings indicate the best probability for some possible, strong, long tracked tornadoes SHOULD lie within the enhanced risk area.  Based on the forecast time stamp, this activity may initiate within the next couple of hours.

Residents under the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS bulletins, as well as local news channels.  IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR VICINITY…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

I am at work tomorrow, and the SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730

ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update. 

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…DEC. 27, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    I hope everyone had a happy and blessed Christmas or Chanukah, and that 2016 is all you hope it to be. SE Louisiana was under a tornado warning a couple nights ago, and the boomies got pretty loud out there, but no tornadoes formed in our area and we did not have any wind damage or flooding near my house, so it was all good. Being able to see in advance what is heading our way really gives me peace of mind, and I thank you for that, Storm.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Tornado Watch for SETX. Eyes to the sky. Liking this much better than the sub freezing temps and snow in DEN

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s