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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk for Severe Thunderstorms across portions of ERN TX…WRN AND NRN LA AND SRN AR…
There is a SLIGHT risk FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk FROM CNTRL AND NRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES…DAMAGING WINDS…AND HAIL…WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS…FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING…AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
Based on information contained in both the SPC outlook text, and analysis of mid and upper level wind maps, the affected areas will be under a 90-100 knot 500 mb (mid level) jet, and very close to the left exit region of a 250 mb jetstreak.
Based on analysis of the NAM-WRF, and analysis of forecast sounding parameters from F5 DATA Severe Weather software, utilizing the RAP model, various sounding values, especially the EHI with values of 2-3, STP values ranging from 1-6, and lapse rates of 6.0-6.5, combined with strong vertical wind shear, and the strong mid and upper level jets, the current model run of the RAP indicates tornadoes to be most probable in the following outlined area.
Forecast soundings indicate the best probability for some possible, strong, long tracked tornadoes SHOULD lie within the enhanced risk area. Based on the forecast time stamp, this activity may initiate within the next couple of hours.
Residents under the ENHANCED and SLIGHT risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS bulletins, as well as local news channels. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR VICINITY…TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
I am at work tomorrow, and the SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for tomorrow.
ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS