SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 25, 2015…11:35 A.M. EST

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM THE FORECAST CENTER
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For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
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At the time of analysis and posting of this synopsis, heavy to severe thunderstorms were in progress over northern MS and northern AL, and may persist for the next 2-3 hours.  Based on analysis of forecast sounding data from the early morning run of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models, using F5 DATA software, the main threat of severe weather and isolated tornado activity should be limited to the SLIGHT risk area…although I will not rule out a NE extension into eastern portions of TN.  Flash Flood warnings were issued earlier for portions of the NE Counties of MS, and may be retrieved by clicking on the NWS Hazard and Warning display.

Residents in the risk area and to the NE, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS information today.

The SPC indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms for tomorrow and Sunday as well.  I work tomorrow, so I will not be able to keep you updated as to conditions tomorrow.  However I am posting an F5 Data map with a blend of the current GFS and NAM-WRF run, which are in close agreement with each other.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
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Based on analysis of F5 Data software this morning, the GFS and NAM-WRF indicated the highest probability area for tornado activity lies within the following outline for tomorrow:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF OUTPUT
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I cannot rule out an extension of the outline into a portion of Arkansas, as based on the most recent run I had to analyze of the SPC SREF model, indicated SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) values to be fairly robust over Arkansas for very early to mid morning tomorrow, with parameters running between 6-12.  The current outline above will most likely modify before tomorrow a.m., however at the current moment, forecast sounding data indicated this area to be the most likely to experience any tornado activity.  Based on sounding parameters, EHI (Energy Helicity Index) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values, significant tornadoes COULD occur, especially in the western one third of the outline.  However, unless SPC upgrades to ENHANCED or MODERATE, this may be indicative of some anomalous values, as in the past I have noticed 06Z runs of the data over 24 hours out, tend to be somewhat robust.  In any event, please use the following graphics to your advantage.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update. 

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 25, 2015…11:35 A.M. EST

  1. Monty says:

    Hey Storm and gang. Getting reports from my friend in Dallas area. Two Strong long track tornadoes scraped the DFW area. Friend lives in Wylie Said twister hit just north his position. Crazy situation up there. We could be in for same tomorrow in IAH

  2. originallt says:

    Sorry I’m late, Merry Christmas to you Storm and your family, and to everyone who checks in on Storm’s Blog!

  3. Elaine Risko says:

    Merry Christmas Storm! Thanks for all you do. Happy New Year from Palm Harbor!!

  4. Monty says:

    MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL OF YOU!! GOD BLESS AND HOPING YOU HAVE THE BEST CHRISTMAS EVER!!!!

    Cloudy and around 80 in Houston. We’ll pay for it next Monday. Only in the 50s.

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