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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST…
At the time of analysis and posting of this synopsis, heavy to severe thunderstorms were in progress over northern MS and northern AL, and may persist for the next 2-3 hours. Based on analysis of forecast sounding data from the early morning run of both the RAP and NAM-WRF models, using F5 DATA software, the main threat of severe weather and isolated tornado activity should be limited to the SLIGHT risk area…although I will not rule out a NE extension into eastern portions of TN. Flash Flood warnings were issued earlier for portions of the NE Counties of MS, and may be retrieved by clicking on the NWS Hazard and Warning display.
Residents in the risk area and to the NE, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS information today.
The SPC indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms for tomorrow and Sunday as well. I work tomorrow, so I will not be able to keep you updated as to conditions tomorrow. However I am posting an F5 Data map with a blend of the current GFS and NAM-WRF run, which are in close agreement with each other.
Based on analysis of F5 Data software this morning, the GFS and NAM-WRF indicated the highest probability area for tornado activity lies within the following outline for tomorrow:
I cannot rule out an extension of the outline into a portion of Arkansas, as based on the most recent run I had to analyze of the SPC SREF model, indicated SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) values to be fairly robust over Arkansas for very early to mid morning tomorrow, with parameters running between 6-12. The current outline above will most likely modify before tomorrow a.m., however at the current moment, forecast sounding data indicated this area to be the most likely to experience any tornado activity. Based on sounding parameters, EHI (Energy Helicity Index) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values, significant tornadoes COULD occur, especially in the western one third of the outline. However, unless SPC upgrades to ENHANCED or MODERATE, this may be indicative of some anomalous values, as in the past I have noticed 06Z runs of the data over 24 hours out, tend to be somewhat robust. In any event, please use the following graphics to your advantage.
ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS