For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS OF GA/AL…
There is a MARGINAL risk ELSEWHERE FROM E TX TO PORTIONS MID ATLC…
SPC OUTLOOK SUMMARY
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT…A MORE MARGINAL…WIDELY DISPERSED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EAST TEXAS.
Based on information in the outlook text, and current forecast soundings, severe activity may be ongoing for the next 2-3 hours, before diminishing as a set of complex thermodynamics changes and begins to become more stable.
The SPC does however call for the probability of re-development of some possible severe thunderstorm activity sometime tonight, based on an increase / strengthening of LLWAA (Low Level Warm Air Advection), ascent, and confluence. This, combined with an increase of 850mb SWLY winds to 35-40 kts, SRH of 150-300 J/KG, mid level lapse rates of 6.0-7.0 degrees C/KM, and forecast MUCAPE of 2000 J/KG may allow for some thunderstorms to produce large hail, damaging gusts, and a conditional tornado threat. SPC does indicate in the last paragraph that location is a big uncertainty at the moment. However (and take this cautiously), based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software, based on forecast soundings of Craven-Brooks values, Significant Tornado Parameter values, and EHI values from both the NAM-WRF and RAP models, current forecast soundings indicate the area most likely to experience these conditions, later this evening, lie within the circled area. Again, this should be considered preliminary, given the fact the current thermodynamic situation will continue to undergo changes as the day wears on.
SPC also indicates the threat of severe thunderstorms during the next 3 day period…click on the graphic for the full details
ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS