SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 24, 2015…10:00 A.M. EST

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM THE FORECAST CENTER
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For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS OF GA/AL…

There is a MARGINAL risk ELSEWHERE FROM E TX TO PORTIONS MID ATLC…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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SPC OUTLOOK SUMMARY
…SUMMARY…
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT…A MORE MARGINAL…WIDELY DISPERSED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EAST TEXAS.

Based on information in the outlook text, and current forecast soundings, severe activity may be ongoing for the next 2-3 hours, before diminishing as a set of complex thermodynamics changes and begins to become more stable.

The SPC does however call for the probability of re-development of some possible severe thunderstorm activity sometime tonight, based on an increase / strengthening of LLWAA (Low Level Warm Air Advection), ascent, and confluence. This, combined with an increase of 850mb SWLY winds to 35-40 kts, SRH of 150-300 J/KG, mid level lapse rates of 6.0-7.0 degrees C/KM, and forecast MUCAPE of 2000 J/KG may allow for some thunderstorms to produce large hail, damaging gusts, and a conditional tornado threat.  SPC does indicate in the last paragraph that location is a big uncertainty at the moment.  However (and take this cautiously), based on my analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software, based on forecast soundings of Craven-Brooks values, Significant Tornado Parameter values, and EHI values from both the NAM-WRF and RAP models, current forecast soundings indicate the area most likely to experience these conditions, later this evening, lie within the circled area.  Again, this should be considered preliminary, given the fact the current thermodynamic situation will continue to undergo changes as the day wears on.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF
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SPC also indicates the threat of severe thunderstorms during the next 3 day period…click on the graphic for the full details

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ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update. 

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 24, 2015…10:00 A.M. EST

  1. On this, the greatest of all ‘eves’, I want to take a few moments to express my thanks to you, Chief Walsh, for keeping me and my family well informed of the vagaries of tropical weather over this past storm-season. I assure you, Senior Chief, our concerns have been much alleviated by your expert analyses.
    I suppose we can’t exactly hold you responsible for the strange Christmas weather we’ve come up with this year but thanks anyway. I visited your donation site a while ago. I hope others do as well!

    Thanks from the BeachBum of Port Aransas.

  2. Ramiro Menendez says:

    MERRY CHRISTMAS MR STORM AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR

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