SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…PDS SITUATION…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED DEC. 23, 2015…2:05 P.M. EST

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Good everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms over FAR SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND…WRN AND CNTRL KY….SERN MO….ERN AR…WRN AND MIDDLE TN….NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL…

…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_tornProbability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SPC DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
day1probotlk_1630_wind
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

The SPC has also issued a PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK for today’s event.  The following graphic is linked to the text report.

SPC PSWO
swo_201512231649

Pretty much, we are looking at a good probability of a Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Outbreak, in which the greatest threat will be in and around the MODERATE risk area.

Based on information and solution of the RAP model, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the greatest risk, or highest probability area should lie within the following outline, with an onset beginning most likely between 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. CST.  Based on the information (indices), some tornadoes could be strong and long tracked.  This activity will continue to shift eastward tonight, and possibly somewhat south, where later tonight, back-building/ regenerating  severe thunderstorms could again produce some strong tornadoes.  Also based on the indices, I have decided to include the E and SE portion of Louisiana in the tornado threat area, AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE given this is where the models are agreeing where the greatest SBCAPE values will be.  Residents in the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio closely today, and keep a vigilant watch on the sky.  Tornadic activity CANNOT be ruled out in the ENHANCED risk area.  Currently, non has been issued, however if conditions become strong enough, there could be a possibility for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)

F5 DATA RAP MODEL SOLUTION
f5.rap

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update.  At the time of issuance of this forecast, several Mesoscale discussions and Tornado Watches had been issued, with one active PDS TORNADO WATCH.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

PDS TORNADO WATCH
ww0559_overview

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED…PDS SITUATION…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…ISSUED DEC. 23, 2015…2:05 P.M. EST

  1. Mac says:

    Just saw this:
    “A “particularly dangerous situation” (PDS) tornado watch has been issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for parts eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, northeast Louisiana and western Tennessee until 8 p.m. CST. This type of tornado watch is issued in rare situations when long-lived intense tornadoes are likely, according to the SPC.”

  2. Mac says:

    The only thing that’ll be falling from the sky down here in SE Louisiana will be rain. Plus I’ll be BBQing my rib roast wearing a short-sleeved shirt and shorts in the 78F weather.
    Bah Humbug!

    Merry Christmas to you Storm and to all.

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