For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms over FAR SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND…WRN AND CNTRL KY….SERN MO….ERN AR…WRN AND MIDDLE TN….NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL…
…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC…
SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
SPC DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
The SPC has also issued a PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK for today’s event. The following graphic is linked to the text report.
Pretty much, we are looking at a good probability of a Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Outbreak, in which the greatest threat will be in and around the MODERATE risk area.
Based on information and solution of the RAP model, using F5 DATA Severe Weather software, the greatest risk, or highest probability area should lie within the following outline, with an onset beginning most likely between 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. CST. Based on the information (indices), some tornadoes could be strong and long tracked. This activity will continue to shift eastward tonight, and possibly somewhat south, where later tonight, back-building/ regenerating severe thunderstorms could again produce some strong tornadoes. Also based on the indices, I have decided to include the E and SE portion of Louisiana in the tornado threat area, AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE given this is where the models are agreeing where the greatest SBCAPE values will be. Residents in the MODERATE and ENHANCED risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio closely today, and keep a vigilant watch on the sky. Tornadic activity CANNOT be ruled out in the ENHANCED risk area. Currently, non has been issued, however if conditions become strong enough, there could be a possibility for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
ALL of the following graphics are linked. You MUST click on them for current information, as the graphics do not update. At the time of issuance of this forecast, several Mesoscale discussions and Tornado Watches had been issued, with one active PDS TORNADO WATCH.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS