SEVERE WEATHER RISK / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:40 A.M. EST…DEC. 17, 2015

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Good day everyone!

This will probably seem short, however due to the fact that the weather pattern may go status quo over the next week.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO NERN GULF COAST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Analysis of forecast severe weather indices, from the RAP model indicate any brief tornado activity could occur within the entire marginal risk outline.  However, this activity would be limited to the strongest thunderstorm cells.  The primary threat today, again should be damaging thunderstorm winds (gusts).  The following maps are linked to provide real time information regarding mesoscale discussions and watches.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY
validmd

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
validww

Elsewhere, the low pressure system I have been mentioning over the past few days, has now moved north of the Great Lakes region.  As the current pattern progresses, very cold air will be drawn south and east, with most of the country coming under temperatures at or below freezing, and with some of the coldest air this winter, extending into a portion of the Florida peninsula.  The “freezing line” is noted as the solid, blue line in the GGEM model.

GFS STATION INTERPOLATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS.STATION54
GGEM 2M TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GGEM60.2M.TEMP
Snowfall accumulation forecast amounts for the next 48 hours appear to be pretty minimal, based on the GS, GGEM and NAM models.

GFS.48.SNOW

GGEMSNOW48

NAM.48SNOW

As I mentioned previously, looks like over the next 72 hours, the pattern pretty much goes to a zonal flow, with the exception of a trof over the California area.  This pattern should allow for a break in the wild weather.

GFS 1000-500MB Mp
GFS72

I work the next 2 days, so may not have another update until possible late Sun. afternoon.

The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

INTELLICAST SNOWCAST
usa_003snow

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER RISK / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:40 A.M. EST…DEC. 17, 2015

  1. Monty says:

    Just saw long range models on El Nino Storm. Looks like it peaked and by Summers end…things drop back to La Nina. Hmmm…an active 2016/2017 Hurricane season???

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