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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…
Based on radar imagery and information in the outlook, this appears to be more of a squall line/QLCS setup. Storms were reported to be somewhat elevated, but some may work down to become surface based. Based on the current forecast severe weather parameter thermodynamics, the most likely threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds. Based on forecast helicity values however, isolated tornado activity could occur, with the best probability lying within the circled area, based on this mornings RAP model update.
The following graphics are linked to the SPC respective sites:
Elsewhere, the low pressure system that global models have been projecting is currently in progress, and will move toward the NNE during the next 24-36 hours. The GFS is a little faster in the solution, however the models seem to be in pretty good agreement on strength and track. There hasn’t been any change to surface wind velocities, which are displayed in the following maps:
GGEM 10M WIND VELOCITY
After passage of this system, some extremely cold air will be ushered in, and will be the first time so far, that much colder temperatures will extend the farthest east and south since winter began.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS