MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:50 A.M. EST…DEC. 16, 2015

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

Based on radar imagery and information in the outlook, this appears to be more of a squall line/QLCS setup.  Storms were reported to be somewhat elevated, but some may work down to become surface based.  Based on the current forecast severe weather parameter thermodynamics, the most likely threat appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds.  Based on forecast helicity values however, isolated tornado activity could occur, with the best probability lying within the circled area, based on this mornings RAP model update.

F5 DATA RAP MODEL
f5rap

The following graphics are linked to the SPC respective sites:

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

Elsewhere, the low pressure system that global models have been projecting is currently in progress, and will move toward the NNE during the next 24-36 hours.  The GFS is a little faster in the solution, however the models seem to be in pretty good agreement on strength and track.  There hasn’t been any change to surface wind velocities, which are displayed in the following maps:

GFS 10M WIND VELOCITY
GFS.10M.WIND

GGEM 10M WIND VELOCITY
GGEM.10M.WIND
After passage of this system, some extremely cold air will be ushered in, and will be the first time so far, that much colder temperatures will extend the farthest east and south since winter began.

GFS INTERPOLATED STATION MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS.STATION
GGEM 2M TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GGEM.2M.TEMP
The following are total snowfall accumulation projections from the GFS, NAM, and GGEM models for the next 48 hours:

GFS.48.SNOW

NAM.48SNOW

GGEMSNOW48
The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
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INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
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INTELLICAST SNOWCAST
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 9:50 A.M. EST…DEC. 16, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm and safe trip, Monty.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. One more day in snowy hell then I’m IAH bound. I’ll get a donation to you the second I get on my feet my friend

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