SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:20 P.M. EST…DEC. 15, 2015

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PLEASE HELP!
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Good day everyone!

There is no severe weather forecast for today, however the SPC has indicated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms for the Central Gulf Coast in tomorrows outlook.  Based on the information in the outlook, the primary threat at the moment appears to be damaging thunderstorm winds.

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models shows another large low pressure system, developing over the central U.S., and is forecast to progress toward the NNE during the next 24-48 hours, with the center remaining west of the Great Lakes region, then moving into Canada.

GFS
GFS33
ECMWF
ECMWF.48GGEM
GGEM36

Models seem to be pretty much in agreement of this system not becoming to intense, with the average pressure of around 994 mb (29.35 in.).  Sustained surface winds are forecast to average around 15-20 knots around the western periphery.  Albeit while not very strong, it will draw extremely cold air southward, and by 72-96 hours in the forecast period, freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures will cover approximately 80-90% of the U.S.  Temperatures should begin to modify over the extreme southern tier of states by Monday/Tuesday of next week.

GFS 10M WIND
GFS.10M.WIND

GGEM 10M WIND
GGEM.10M.WIND

NAM 10M WIND
NAM.10M.WIND
GFS 72 HOUR FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GFS.STATION72
GFS 96 HOUR FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
GFS.STATION.96

Snowfall once again, is forecast to be limited to the Pacific NW, and eastward into the northern Rockies states.  The following are the total snowfall accumulation projections from the GFS, GGEM, and NAM models for the next 72 hours:

GFS.72.SNOW

GGEMSNOW72

NAM.84SNOW

The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 1:20 P.M. EST…DEC. 15, 2015

  1. Monty says:

    Some NWS Spotter snowfall totals…yuck!!

    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
    111 PM MST TUE DEC 15 2015

    ..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
    ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
    ..REMARKS..

    0111 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSW BOULDER 40.00N 105.27W
    12/15/2015 M9.5 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

    AT NWS OFFICE

    1249 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 N LOCHBUIE 40.04N 104.72W
    12/15/2015 M10.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1245 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 E BOULDER 40.03N 105.18W
    12/15/2015 E11.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1245 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 WSW CONIFER 39.50N 105.35W
    12/15/2015 M11.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1240 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 NE LONE TREE 39.57N 104.85W
    12/15/2015 M11.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1236 PM HEAVY SNOW 2 S DENVER 39.70N 104.96W
    12/15/2015 M9.8 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1229 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSE AURORA 39.67N 104.79W
    12/15/2015 M8.3 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1217 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 NE FOUR CORNERS 40.94N 105.80W
    12/15/2015 M12.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    SAND CREEK PARK

    1215 PM HEAVY SNOW 8 SE WATKINS 39.67N 104.49W
    12/15/2015 M10.6 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    4 FOOT DRIFTS

    1207 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
    12/15/2015 M7.7 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1157 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW LOUISVILLE 39.99N 105.15W
    12/15/2015 M10.8 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1143 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 SW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.89N 105.32W
    12/15/2015 M16.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1142 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 N STRASBURG 39.75N 104.30W
    12/15/2015 M9.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    2 FOOT DRIFTS ON AVERAGE

    1126 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 NW LARKSPUR 39.24N 104.98W
    12/15/2015 M17.0 INCH DOUGLAS CO PUBLIC

    1112 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW SUPERIOR 39.96N 105.20W
    12/15/2015 M9.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1112 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SW WESTMINSTER 39.87N 105.06W
    12/15/2015 M10.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1100 AM HEAVY SNOW DENVER INTL AIRPORT 39.87N 104.67W
    12/15/2015 M6.7 INCH DENVER CO OFFICIAL NWS OBS

    STORM TOTAL

    1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSW DENVER 39.68N 104.98W
    12/15/2015 M8.0 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1048 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSW BOULDER 39.99N 105.27W
    12/15/2015 M12.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1048 AM HEAVY SNOW E BROOMFIELD 39.94N 105.06W
    12/15/2015 M10.0 INCH BROOMFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1046 AM SNOW WNW SIMLA 39.14N 104.09W
    12/15/2015 E6.0 INCH ELBERT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1035 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SSE TABERNASH 39.95N 105.84W
    12/15/2015 M11.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1030 AM HEAVY SNOW GENESEE 39.69N 105.27W
    12/15/2015 M14.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    2.8 INCHES PAST 3 HOURS. 0.8 INCH LAST HOUR.

    1025 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 WSW FORT COLLINS 40.54N 105.12W
    12/15/2015 M7.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING

    1021 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 S FORT COLLINS 40.50N 105.07W
    12/15/2015 M9.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    18 INCH DRIFTS

    1015 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 ESE EVERGREEN 39.62N 105.31W
    12/15/2015 M9.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1015 AM HEAVY SNOW LOVELAND 40.42N 105.07W
    12/15/2015 M9.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    2.5 FOOT DRIFTS

    1010 AM HEAVY SNOW SHERIDAN 39.65N 105.02W
    12/15/2015 M10.0 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1005 AM SNOW 1 S LOVELAND 40.40N 105.07W
    12/15/2015 M7.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    1005 AM SNOW 2 ESE ALLENSPARK 40.19N 105.48W
    12/15/2015 M8.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0945 AM SNOW 2 WSW FORT COLLINS 40.54N 105.11W
    12/15/2015 M7.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0920 AM SNOW 1 NNE ESTES PARK 40.36N 105.51W
    12/15/2015 M4.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Just did a donation. I know things are expensive and I appreciate your sharing of your talents. Thanks to today’s forecast, I am revising my plans for tomorrow evening. Crossing the 24 mile long Causeway Bridge across Lake Pontchartrain in high winds is not fun. God bless you and your family, as well as all of the Palm Harbor family on this site. Monty, stay safe so you can make it to Houston!

    • Monty says:

      Thanks Dellamom…can’t wait to come home to Texas. God Bless.

    • Dellamom, thank you. However, I don’t expect you to support my site by yourself. I know everyone that comments here, have made more than their fair share of contributions. More or less seeking donations from folks who read my forecasts on a lot of the weather groups I belong to on FB. But again, thank you so much!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, and good luck on the move,Monty, be safe.

  4. Monty says:

    Parents are eager to get on your blog. I’ll get them on when I get down there.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Damn…the models were fooled and this Winter Storm intensified overnight. CoCoRahs reporting over a foot in areas around my location. Going to try to get out of here tomorrow evening and get past the 70s ground blizzards. Shouls make for an easy trip into DFW on Thursday and a real easy trip into IAH on Friday. God Bless all you guys!!

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