SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER “QUICKCAST” OUTLOOK…ISSUED 4:15 P.M. EST…DEC. 13, 2015

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Good evening everyone!

Since I am pressed for time this evening, this will be a short update to give you a general idea what to expect over the next 72-96 hours.  I will try to have more of an update sometime on Tuesday.

The SPC did designate a small MARGINAL risk area for a portion of central LA.  The DAY 1  graphic is linked to the SPC Outlook.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_2000

 Elsewhere, the SPC dose not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 5-7 days.

Analysis of the global models indicates a series of 2 more low pressure systems will develop over the central portion of the U.S., intensify, and move toward the NNE to over the northern Rockies and western Great Lakes region during the next 48-72 hours.  It appears snowfall accumulations over the next 84 hours will pretty much resemble that last set of snowfall accumulation maps I posted.  Models are in agreement on these low pressure areas, however I am only posting the GFS, in order to save room on the page.

GFS FORECASTS
GFS12

GFS33

GFS48

GFS72

GFS/GGEM/NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST
GFS.84.SNOW

GGEMSNOW84

NAM.84SNOW

With the passage of the final low, minimum temperatures of near freezing, to below freezing will work their way a little further to the east, and are projected as follows.

GFS FORECAST STATION PLOTS
GFS.STATION

GFS.STATION.96

I intend to update on these low pressure systems sometime on Tuesday, and will try to go a little more in depth in the forecast.

The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER “QUICKCAST” OUTLOOK…ISSUED 4:15 P.M. EST…DEC. 13, 2015

  1. Monty says:

    Yeah LT. It will be great to move back to a place I am used to…grew up in San Antonio. I’m living just outside of what is now Houston’s third loop…the 99 fwy. Our ranch is about 15 miles from metro Houston off the 290. Wow…has that city grown!!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hi to all of Storm’s gang.

    It’s clear and 40F in Denver right now. Another front and disturbance headed this way. Laughing my head off…next Friday I will have a permanent residence in Houston. Long live the SEUS!!

    • originallt says:

      Congrats, Monty. Look forward to your Houston weather report!.– I lived down in Houston in the late 70’s for a few months, I lived just outside the 610 loop on the west side of town. Was there from Jan. to March. Temps. were great, highs usually 50’s, lows 30’s. Some days higher.

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