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Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 3 outlook across MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST TX…CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK…NORTHWEST LA…WESTERN AR AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MO…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM DEEP SOUTH TX TO EASTERN KS…MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA…
The following information will most likely change before this event, however current information based on F5 DATA Severe Weather software analysis of the GFS and NAM-WRF models indicates at the moment, the most likely area to experience to brunt of severe thunderstorm activity, and isolated tornadoes, lies within the white outlined area.
Currently, the models indicate this area may experience this weather beginning AOA 12:00 p.m. CST. As stated, this information may change, as the model runs update between now and Saturday. There could exist the slight probability of hail within the area, given Lifted Indices of -2 to -4. The SWEAT index values of 450-500 indicate the possibility of isolated tornado activity. The SRH values of 200-300 m2/s-2 indicates the increased risk of supercells, capable of tornado development. From the SPC:
SRH = Storm-Relative Helicity. SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1 and 3 km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. However, larger values of 0-3 km SRH (greater than 250 m2s-2) and 0-1 km SRH (greater than 100 m2s-2) do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger is generally better, but there are no clear “boundaries” between nontornadic and significant tornadic supercells.
Residents in the proposed risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements throughout the day on Saturday. The following graphics are linked for you to use this weekend by clicking on them for up to date information (the graphics do not update automatically). The NWS Hazards and Warnings display is located at the bottom of this page.
The SPC has indicated a probability of Severe Thunderstorm activity extending into Day 4 (Sunday) in the 4-8 day outlook. I will try to update sometime on Sunday afternoon regarding this. The following graphic is linked to the outlook text.
Elsewhere, the global models are still in agreement of a large low pressure system developing over the Central Rockies, to northern Rockies area during the next 96 hours.
By day 5-6 (120-144 hours), from 06Z this morning, another large low pressure system is forecast by the models to develop further west, and take pretty much the same path.
The following graphics are linked for current information
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS