SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EST…DEC. 10, 2015

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a SLIGHT risk of  Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 3 outlook across MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST TX…CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK…NORTHWEST LA…WESTERN AR AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MO…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM DEEP SOUTH TX TO EASTERN KS…MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA…

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0830

The following information will most likely change before this event, however current information based on F5 DATA Severe Weather software analysis of the GFS and NAM-WRF models indicates at the moment, the most likely area to experience to brunt of severe thunderstorm activity, and isolated tornadoes, lies within the white outlined area.

F5 DATA NAM-WRF SEVERE PARAMETERS
f5 nam severe

Currently, the models indicate this area may experience this weather beginning AOA 12:00 p.m. CST.  As stated, this information may change, as the model runs update between now and Saturday.  There could exist the slight probability of hail within the area, given Lifted Indices of -2 to -4.  The SWEAT index values of 450-500 indicate the possibility of isolated tornado activity.  The SRH values of 200-300 m2/s-2 indicates the increased risk of supercells, capable of tornado development.  From the SPC:

SRH = Storm-Relative Helicity. SRH is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1 and 3 km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. However, larger values of 0-3 km SRH (greater than 250 m2s-2) and 0-1 km SRH (greater than 100 m2s-2) do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger is generally better, but there are no clear “boundaries” between nontornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

Residents in the proposed risk areas should monitor  NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements throughout the day on Saturday.  The following graphics are linked for you to use this weekend by clicking on them for up to date information (the graphics do not update automatically).  The NWS Hazards and Warnings display is located at the bottom of this page.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

The SPC has indicated a probability of Severe Thunderstorm activity extending into Day 4 (Sunday) in the 4-8 day outlook.  I will try to update sometime on Sunday afternoon regarding this. The following graphic is linked to the outlook text.

SPC DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (DAY4)
day4prob

Elsewhere, the global models are still in agreement of a large low pressure system developing over the Central Rockies, to northern Rockies area during the next 96 hours.

GFS
GFS.96

ECMWF
ECMWF.96

GGEM
GGEM.108
After passage of this system the majority of extreme cold should be located over the western two thirds of the country.

GFS MINIMUM / GGEM 2 METER SURFACE TEMPS

GFS.STATION

GGEM.2M.TEMP

By day 5-6 (120-144 hours), from 06Z this morning, another large low pressure system is forecast by the models to develop further west, and take pretty much the same path.

GFS
GFS.120

ECMWF
ECMWF.144

GGEM
GGEM.150
The following total snowfall accumulations are projected by the GFS and CMC GGEM for the next 5 days, with the western U.S. and small portion of the Great Lakes region accumulating the most.

GFS
GFS.120.SNOW

GGEM
GGEM.SNOW.120

The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 10:10 A.M. EST…DEC. 10, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Thanks for all your hard work, Storm. By the way, the fishing trip scheduled for Saturday was cancelled last night due to wind. Pretty much what I got from your advices a few days earlier. Looks like my stepson is not gonna have the bachelor party he wanted, and I was so proud of him for picking the fishing trip over bar-hopping.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Love that Visible satellite link you provided, so clear!— 60-65F up here the next 3-4 days. Then cold front late Monday, but still above normal, after it’s passage. Normal highs in the NYC Metro area now range from 43-45F. Thanks, “El Nino” !

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