SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 2:50 P.M. EST…DEC. 09, 2015

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Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a probability for severe weather during days 4 and 5 in the day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook.  Unfortunately, this will be during the weekend…in which case I work Saturday, but will try to update Sun. afternoon for the day 5 event.  I will try to have specific information in my update tomorrow.   The following graphics are linked to the outlook text.

SPC DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (DAYS 4-5)
day4prob

day5prob

Elsewhere, the global models are still in agreement of a large low pressure system developing over the Central Rockies, to northern Rockies area during the next 96-120 hours.

GFS
GFS.120.500

ECMWF
ECMWF.120

GGEM
GGEM.120
After passage of this system the majority of extreme cold should be located over the western two thirds of the country.

GFS / GGEM 2 METER SURFACE TEMPS
GFS.STATION
GGEM.2M

By day 6 (144 hours), from 12Z this morning, another large, strong low pressure system is forecast by the models to develop further west, and take pretty much the same path.

GFS
GFS.144 HOUR

ECMWF
ECMWF.144

GGEM
ggem.144
The following total snowfall accumulations are projected by the GFS and CMC GGEM for the next 6 days, with the western U.S. and small portion of the Great Lakes region accumulating the most.

GFS
GFS.144.SNOW

GGEM
GGEMSNOW144

The following graphics are linked for current information

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOPS
latest_east_ir4_conus

latest_east_vis_conus

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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