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Good day everyone!
Just wanted to let you know…I haven’t forgotten all of you. Between work this past week, and personal commitments, this is the first chance I have had to update.
Based on analysis of the models this morning, there doesn’t appear to be very much going on over the next few days, until we head into the weekend, and early next week.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a probability for severe weather during DAY 5 in the day 4-8 outlook. Unfortunately, this will be during the weekend…in which case I work Saturday. I will try to update on Wed. and Thurs. however, as I am sure changes will occur in the forecast.
In other weather concerns, models seem to agree on a large, strong area of low pressure developing over the Rockies, to northern Rockies area within the 5-7 day time frame in the forecast period from 06Z this morning. The GFS is a little quicker in the solution, while the ECMWF and CMC GGEM are about a 1-2 days slower. I am rather surprised given the very tight spacing of the isobars, that surface wind speeds are not stronger than depicted. I’ll be posting projected snowfall totals most likely on Thursday.
However, as this system shifts toward the eastern U.S., the Stormfury model (based on GFS input), indicates things could become rough off the eastern seaboard by days 5 and 6 in the period.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS