SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EST…DEC. 08, 2015

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Good day everyone!

Just wanted to let you know…I haven’t forgotten all of you.  Between work this past week, and personal commitments, this is the first chance I have had to update.

Based on analysis of the models this morning, there doesn’t appear to be very much going on over the next few days, until we head into the weekend, and early next week.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a probability for severe weather during DAY 5 in the day 4-8 outlook.  Unfortunately, this will be during the weekend…in which case I work Saturday.  I will try to update on Wed. and Thurs. however, as I am sure changes will occur in the forecast.

SPC DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day5prob

In other weather concerns, models seem to agree on a large, strong area of low pressure developing over the Rockies, to northern Rockies area within the 5-7 day time frame in the forecast period from 06Z this morning.  The GFS is a little quicker in the solution, while the ECMWF and CMC GGEM are about a 1-2 days slower.  I am rather surprised given the very tight spacing of the isobars, that surface wind speeds are not stronger than depicted.  I’ll be posting projected snowfall totals most likely on Thursday.

GFS
GFS.129

GFS 10M WIND

ECMWF
ECMWF.144

GGEM
GGEM.162

However, as this system shifts toward the eastern U.S., the Stormfury model (based on GFS input), indicates things could become rough off the eastern seaboard by days 5 and 6 in the period.

WAVE AND WIND MODEL (LINKED)
eus_height_156hr

eus_wind_156hr
So over the next few days, my updates will most likely be focused on the severe weather probability, and this large area of low pressure.

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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