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Good day everyone!
Now is the time of the year in which the forecast center will focus on severe weather and winter weather. Should there be a probability of an out of season tropical or sub-tropical development, a special tropical update will be posted.
With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 5-7 days.
Based on analysis of the early morning runs of the global models, the models are in fair agreement of a low/winter storm developing IVO Maine, Gulf of Maine, to Nova Scotia within the next 36-42 hours. Models are in fair agreement of this low attaining a 994-996 mb pressure.
Based on the current model runs, sustained winds over and IVO the Gulf of Maine could reach the 35-40 mph range, with seas running 4-6 ft close to the coast, and 10-16 ft well offshore. Mariners should monitor local NWS Offshore forecast products closely.
As far as winter precipitation, based on analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness loops from both the GFS and NAM, along with 850 mb and 500 mb temperature loops, wintry precipitation should be diminishing over the Northern Rockies area, and progressing eastward. I am expecting winter precipitation to begin sometime later this evening in the extreme western portions of PA and NY State, and reaching the NE and New England states early on Thursday morning.
The following are total snowfall accumulations forecast by the GFS and CMC GGEM during the next 72 hours, and the NAM during the next 84 hours.
The following graphics are linked. You must click on them to see up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS