SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED 9:45 A.M. EST…DEC. 02, 2015

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Good day everyone!

Now is the time of the year in which the forecast center will focus on severe weather and winter weather.  Should there be a probability of an out of season tropical or sub-tropical development, a special tropical update will be posted.

With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 5-7 days.

SPC OVERVIEW PAGE
activity_loop

Based on analysis of the early morning runs of the global models, the models are in fair agreement of a low/winter storm developing IVO Maine, Gulf of Maine, to Nova Scotia within the next 36-42 hours.  Models are in fair agreement of this low attaining a 994-996 mb pressure.

ECMWF
ECMWF.48
GFS
GFS.36GFS.42
GGEM
GGEM.42
FIM8
FIM8wind_10m_f042

Based on the current model runs, sustained winds over and IVO the Gulf of Maine could reach the 35-40 mph range, with seas running 4-6 ft close to the coast, and 10-16 ft well offshore.  Mariners should monitor local NWS Offshore forecast products closely.

CURRENT STORMSURF WAVE AND WIND FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
newengland_sea_19

newengland_wind_17

newengland_comp_19

As far as winter precipitation, based on  analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness loops from both the GFS and NAM, along with 850 mb and 500 mb temperature loops, wintry precipitation should be diminishing over the Northern Rockies area, and progressing eastward.  I am expecting winter precipitation to begin sometime later this evening in the extreme western portions of PA and NY State, and reaching the NE and New England states early on Thursday morning.

The following are total snowfall accumulations forecast by the GFS and CMC GGEM during the next 72 hours, and the NAM during the next 84 hours.

GFS
GFS.72.SNOW
GGEM
GGEMSNOW72

NAM
NAM.84SNOW

The following graphics are linked.  You must click on them to see up to date information.

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_ir4_conus

RAMSDIS IR4 SATELLITE LOOP (EAST)
geir404

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
atl_offshore_800px

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
freeze1

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
usa_CHILL003

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED 9:45 A.M. EST…DEC. 02, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    My stepson’s bachelor party is scheduled for this coming Friday and Saturday. They are going deep sea fishing off the Louisiana coast and staying two nights at a camp. Storm, do you know what the conditions will be like out there? It’s already been postponed once for weather concerns Halloween weekend. The wedding is January 2nd, so there isn’t a lot of time for another reschedule. Thanks for your input.

  2. dellamom says:

    We had frost this morning. Probably should have covered the winter garden and the citrus trees, but wasn’t aware of the frost potential. I will have to cover tonight, I guess, just to mitigate any damage done last night.

  3. dellamom says:

    Monty, are you a Texan yet?

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, Looking for a strong Nor’Easter up here by Dec. 8-9. Should be all rain along and near the coast. Just too much warm air around, and no real arctic air in site. Also, climatology argues against any early Dec. important snow fall up here.

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