SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED 10:05 A.M. EST…DEC. 01, 2015

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Good day everyone!

Now is the time of the year in which the forecast center will focus on severe weather and winter weather.  Should there be a probability of an out of season tropical or sub-tropical development, a special tropical update will be posted.

With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 5-7 days.

SPC OVERVIEW PAGE
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Based on analysis of the early morning runs of the global models, the models are in fair agreement of a low/winter storm developing along the coastal region of Maine, to the Gulf of Maine within the next 72 hours.  Models are in fair agreement of this low attaining a 992 mb pressure.

GFS
GFS.2M.

ECMWF 850 MB WIND (NOTE: SURFACE WIND WILL BE WEAKER)
ECMWF850

GGEM

GGEM.72

FIM8
FIM8wind_10m_f072

Based on the current model runs, sustained winds over and IVO the Gulf of Maine could reach the 30-40 mph range, with seas running 3-5 ft close to the coast, and 10-16 ft well offshore.  Mariners should monitor local NWS Offshore forecast products closely.

CURRENT STORMSURF WAVE AND WIND FORECAST (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)
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newengland_wind_25

As far as precipitation during the next 72 hours, analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness loops from both the GFS and NAM, along with 850 mb and 500 mb temperature loops, some snow and freezing precip should begin to affect portions of the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest areas early on Wednesday.  As this area progresses to the east, and in conjuncture with the system developing IVO Gulf of Maine, winter precipitation should begin to affect portions of PA,  the NEUS, and New England areas sometime on Thursday.

The following are total snowfall accumulations forecast by the GFS and CMC GGEM during the next 72 hours.

GFS 72 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GFS.72SNOW

GGEM 72 HOUR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GGEMSNOW72

Given the 72 hour forecast time period, some changes to the forecast could occur, and I will try to issue another update sometime tomorrow.

The following graphics are linked.  Click on them to see up to date information.

OPC ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
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INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE OUTLOOK
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INTELLICAST WIND CHILL MAP
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Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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