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Good day everyone!
Now is the time of the year in which the forecast center will focus on severe weather and winter weather. Should there be a probability of an out of season tropical or sub-tropical development, a special tropical update will be posted.
With that being said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any severe weather threat during the next 5-7 days.
Based on analysis of the early morning runs of the global models, the models are in fair agreement of a low/winter storm developing along the coastal region of Maine, to the Gulf of Maine within the next 72 hours. Models are in fair agreement of this low attaining a 992 mb pressure.
Based on the current model runs, sustained winds over and IVO the Gulf of Maine could reach the 30-40 mph range, with seas running 3-5 ft close to the coast, and 10-16 ft well offshore. Mariners should monitor local NWS Offshore forecast products closely.
As far as precipitation during the next 72 hours, analysis of the 1000-500 mb thickness loops from both the GFS and NAM, along with 850 mb and 500 mb temperature loops, some snow and freezing precip should begin to affect portions of the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest areas early on Wednesday. As this area progresses to the east, and in conjuncture with the system developing IVO Gulf of Maine, winter precipitation should begin to affect portions of PA, the NEUS, and New England areas sometime on Thursday.
The following are total snowfall accumulations forecast by the GFS and CMC GGEM during the next 72 hours.
Given the 72 hour forecast time period, some changes to the forecast could occur, and I will try to issue another update sometime tomorrow.
The following graphics are linked. Click on them to see up to date information.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS