TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…NOV. 29, 2015

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY: NONE
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

I hope everyone had a very Happy Thanksgiving!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has not designated any severe weather areas during this coming week.

Analysis of global models this afternoon, indicates no tropical development.  Tomorrow is the final day of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  We end the season with 11 total named storms, 4 of those becoming Hurricanes, with 2 of those becoming Major Hurricanes.  The U.S. experienced 2 landfalls this season.  Depending on which averages you go by, we were above normal for total storms, using the long term average from 1851-2011 which would be 10 named storms, or just below average of 12 named storms, using data from 1981-2010.  Right now, I do not have anything concrete to look at as far as analog years for next season.  I have to wait for the ONI seasonal chart to update, to be able to establish some sort of trend as we enter the new year.  It is noted however, the SOI has climbed fairly swift toward the positive end of the chart, having remained steady for 3 days now at -4.0  Should this trend continue, it could signal a weakening and possible reversal in the Equatorial Trade Winds over the Pacific, which could slow or even stop any further warming in the Equatorial EPAC.

Model solutions have also backed off the idea of coastal storm development along the NE U.S. coast.

SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) 30 DAY RUNNING MEAN
soi30

Analysis of the models indicates more very cold weather on the way for most of the U.S., with the majority of the country experiencing freezing to below freezing minimum night time temperatures within the next 4-5 days, with the CMC GGEM being more unforgiving with the minimum values.  At the moment, it appears the greatest snowfall amounts over the next 72-96 hours will fall over NE, ND, SD, MN and IA.

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 4-5 DAY
GFS.MIN.96

GFS.MIN.120

GGEM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 4-5 DAY
GGEM,MIN.96

GGEM.MIN.120

GFS AND GGEM FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION 72-96 HOURS
GFSSNOW72

GFSSNOW96

GGEMSNOW72

GGEMSNOW96

The following graphics are linked to provide you with near to real time information and updates.  Just click on the graphic you’re interested in.

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE MAP
freeze1

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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WIND CHILLusa_003

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

I work tomorrow, but will try to update again on Tue. and Wed., time allowing.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…NOV. 29, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you Storm, I hope your Thanksgiving was wonderful. Mine was full of things for which to be thankful. The information and peace of mind generated on this site was one of my “thankful for” items this year once again. I wish for you a peaceful and prosperous holiday season, my friend. Monty, I hope you have made it to Texas. Greg, I am glad we both made it through this season without a hurricane visiting us and pray to be so fortunate next year as well.

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