SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY: MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
I’d like to wish each and every one of you a very HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
Thanks to all of you for your support.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…
Analysis of severe weather forecast soundings indicates the main severe threat should be wind, followed by a slight probability for some isolated, brief tornado activity. Forecast sounding values indicate this weather should occur within the outlines provided in the SPC DAY 1 Outlook. While it cannot be totally ruled out for an isolated tornado to occur just outside the 2% area, the focus should be within the outline. The following graphics are linked for you to mouse over and click on to relieve CURRENT information. The displays in this synopsis do not update automatically, and must be clicked on for current information.
Analysis of global models this morning are pointing to a possible coastal storm development in the medium range forecast, at approximately 9-10 days out in the forecast period. The GFS, CMC, FIM8 and FIM9 seem to be pretty much in agreement. The catalyst for this, should it occur, appears to begin as an inverted trof near FL. The 00Z ECMWF run did not show a closed low on that particular run, however did indicate the mentioned trof, which the motion indicated was ENE across the FL. Panhandle. I will continue to monitor subsequent runs of the models, and may post again sometime Sunday afternoon should I have time.
Have a blessed Thanksgiving!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS