SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EST…NOV. 26, 2015

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY: MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

I’d like to wish each and every one of you a very HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Thanks to all of you for your support.

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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1300

day1probotlk_1300_torn

Analysis of severe weather forecast soundings indicates the main severe threat should be wind, followed by a slight probability for some isolated, brief tornado activity.  Forecast sounding values indicate this weather should occur within the outlines provided in the SPC DAY 1 Outlook.  While it cannot be totally ruled out for an isolated tornado to occur just outside the 2% area, the focus should be within the outline.  The following graphics are linked for you to mouse over and click on to relieve CURRENT information.  The displays in this synopsis do not update automatically, and must be clicked on for current information.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
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Analysis of global models this morning are pointing to a possible coastal storm development in the medium range forecast, at approximately 9-10 days out in the forecast period.  The GFS, CMC, FIM8 and FIM9 seem to be pretty much in agreement.  The catalyst for this, should it occur, appears to begin as an inverted trof near FL. The 00Z ECMWF run did not show a closed low on that particular run, however did indicate the mentioned trof, which the motion indicated was ENE across the FL. Panhandle.  I will continue to monitor subsequent runs of the models, and may post again sometime Sunday afternoon should I have time.

GFS
GFS.228
CMC
GGEM.240
FIM8
FIM8wind_10m_f246

FIM9
FIM9wind_10m_f240

ECMWF
ECMWF.240
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected.

Have a blessed Thanksgiving!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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