TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
I know I haven’t updated in a while, however I have been extremely sick with almost Flu like symptoms…spent my only 2 days off pretty much in bed trying to recover, and working the other days sick as a dog.
On the severe weather front, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any threat of Severe Thunderstorms during the next week.
Analysis of the global models this morning do not per se, indicate any tropical development during the next 7 days, however the models are in agreement of a large, strong trof split occurring in the open Atlantic IVO north of, to near the southern Bahamas, possibly near Cuba within the next 4-7 days. As of analysis, the GFS and CMC are the only models developing a weak surface low associated with this. While I do not expect any development from this, the trof split and cutoff low at 500 mb is backed up from the NCEP ESRL site indicating a significant lowering in pressures at 500 mb. What I will be monitoring for, is to see whether or not this moves towards the U.S., possibly becoming a strong Atlantic gale.
Models are suggesting a warm up over the next 72-120 hours over the eastern U.S., with the bulk of the coldest minimum temperatures confined to the Great Plains region, and running through the Ohio Valley region into the NE and New England areas.
The following are the recent forecast snowfall accumulation totals from the GFS 72 hour forecast, and NAM 84 hour forecast. Snowfall totals are subject to change however, but these should give an approximation of what is expected.
The following graphics are linked to provide you with current information.
I will try to have another update sometime tomorrow.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS