TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…NOV. 24, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

I know I haven’t updated in a while, however I have been extremely sick with almost Flu like symptoms…spent my only 2 days off pretty much in bed trying to recover, and working the other days sick as a dog.

On the severe weather front, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate any threat of Severe Thunderstorms during the next week.

SPC DAY 1-3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS (LINKED)
day1otlk_1630

SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day48prob

Analysis of the global models this morning do not per se, indicate any tropical development during the next 7 days, however the models are in agreement of a large, strong trof split occurring in the open Atlantic IVO north of, to near the southern Bahamas, possibly near Cuba within the next 4-7 days.  As of analysis, the GFS and CMC are the only models developing a weak surface low associated with this.  While I do not expect any development from this, the trof split and cutoff low at 500 mb is backed up from the NCEP ESRL site indicating a significant lowering in pressures at 500 mb.  What I will be monitoring for, is to see whether or not this moves towards the U.S., possibly becoming a strong Atlantic gale.

GFS
gfs.96
CMC
ggem96
NCEP ESRL 500 MB MEAN NORMAL ANOMALY FORECAST
z500nanom_f096_usbg

Models are suggesting a warm up over the next 72-120 hours over the eastern U.S., with the bulk of the coldest minimum temperatures confined to the Great Plains region, and running through the Ohio Valley region into the NE and New England areas.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 5 DAY
MEX.MINF.003

The following are the recent forecast snowfall accumulation totals from the GFS 72 hour forecast, and NAM 84 hour forecast.  Snowfall totals are subject to change however, but these should give an approximation of what is expected.

GFS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
GFS.72SNOW

NAM SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
NAM.84SNOW

The following graphics are linked to provide you with current information.

INTELLICAST FROST/FREEZE FORECAST
freeze1

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER (SIR) RADAR
usa_None_anim

INTELLICAST WIND CHILL FORECAST
usa_CHILL003

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

I will try to have another update sometime tomorrow.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…NOV. 24, 2015

  1. Mac says:

    Hope you are healing and will be able to enjoy your Thanksgiving dinner tomorrow, Senior Chief!
    Happy Thanksgiving to all!

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