TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:15 P.M. EST…NOV. 22, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

I know I haven’t updated in a while, however I have been extremely sick with almost Flu like symptoms…spent my only 2 days off pretty much in bed trying to recover, hence this very short synopsis.

Analysis of global models indicates the models have dropped the solution of a subtropical low developing in the open Atlantic by mid week, and Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.  In fact, we may not see anything up to the official close of the season, as modeling indicates an extremely strong ridge of high pressure to build over the Atlantic in a few days, with a pressure of approximately 1049-1050 mb (30.98-31.01 in).

GFS
gfs.96

The Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK. doe snot indicate any threat for severe weather over the next 5 days.

Once we get out of hurricane season, I will begin to post winter weather updates, with snowfall projection maps, and frost/freeze projections as well as some other winter stuff.  For today however, both the GFS and NAM indicate most of the U.S. will be locked into some very cold weather during the next 48 hours, as indicate by the current forecast night time minimum temperatures.  Click on the graphics, and select the temperature block for temp. products.

GFS MEX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP
MEX.MINF.001

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP
MET.MINF.001

The GFS is indicating that the freezing line may extend fairly far south over the next 48 hours, extending into potions of extreme northern AL., GA, and SC.

GFS 2 METER TEMPERATURES
gfsminimum

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 3:15 P.M. EST…NOV. 22, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I hope you get a string of off days coming up so you can get more rest. I hope the same for me. Thank you for taking care of us even while ill. Congratulations Monty! I know you were hoping to miss this year’s snow events, and I hope life will be enjoyable for you going forward.

  2. Monty says:

    By the way Storm. God Bless and I am Praying for a speedy recovery!!

  3. grannyMS says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m glad you are on the mend.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like I head to IAH at end of month.

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