SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EST…NOV. 17, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (10%)
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

*CORRECTION MADE TO TIME OF SEVERE ONSET FOR ENHANCED AREA

Starting off with severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA…

There is a SLIGHT risk from SOUTHERN MO INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…

There is a MARGINAL risk over parts of the MID/LOWER MS VALLEY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day1otlk_1300

Information contained in the SPC Outlook text indicates said risk areas will be under a very moist flow throughout the day, into the evening hours, with surface dew points in the 60F-70F range.  A squall line/QLCS is approaching from the west, and may produce some embedded bowing structures.  The main severe weather threat appears to be damaging straight line winds from bow echos for the most part.  Analysis of upper air maps indicate the risk areas will be under the influence of a 50-70 kt jet at H85, 80-90 knot jet at H5, and 100-130 kt jet at H25.  Analysis of the RAP and NAM-WRF models, utilizing F5 DATA Severe Weather software, indicates the highest probability for tornadoes to occur should lie within the ENHANCED risk area.  Based on a blend of the two model solutions, tornadic activity may occur just outside of the ENHANCED area, and indicated by the circled area.  EHI and STP values of 2+ indicate some tornadoes that may develop, could have the capability of becoming EF2-EF3 strength.  Based on timing of the model solutions as of analysis, initiation of onset may occur from approximately 12:00 – 3:00 p.m. CST, through 6:00 p.m. CST.  SPC suggests the severe threat may be expanded into more of SOUTHERN MO/NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN.

F5 DATA BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5 namtor

At the time of analysis, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado watch had been issued.

Residents within the risk areas, especially in the ENHANCED region, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS reports for current information.

ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, and will provide the latest information for you by clicking on them.  You must click on the graphics, as the posted displays do not automatically update.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP
usa_None_anim

tvr_None_anim

On the tropical front, the NHC has lowered the probability of cyclone development, regarding the broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean, to LOW (10%).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, the broad low was detected.  However, in analyzing the various satellite loops, it appears that most of the energy associated with this area, is bleeding over into the EPAC, and in the Monsoon trof.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Based on analysis of the current steering layers map, and forecast steering layers maps, the broad low should continue a very slow drift toward the west.  The majority of the major global models tend to indicate this, with the NAVGEM being an outlier, bringing the into the Gulf of Honduras.  Given the analysis and appearance of the situation, based on the satellite loops, it appears the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC have the correct solution.  Based on the current wind shear forecast, I cannot rule out the GFS solution in developing another Tropical Storm in the EPAC in about 5-7 days.  Unless forecast conditions change significantly, I do not foresee this area of disturbed weather becoming an INVEST, at least for the Caribbean side.

ECMWF
ECMWF.192
GFS
GFS.156

GFS.210
CMC
ggem.144
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EST…NOV. 17, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. We are outside the enhanced area, in the slight area. Mostly tonight, we are expecting heavy showers, thunderstorms, a lot of flooding in flood-prone areas. I don’t live in one, but have to pass through flood-prone areas to get home. Tommorrow I will be driving the TrailBlazer to work! Now for the winter question. Given the odd hurricane season for an El Nino year, what do you think the southeastern US can expect for the winter?

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