TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: LOW (10%)
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
*CORRECTION MADE TO TIME OF SEVERE ONSET FOR ENHANCED AREA
Starting off with severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA…
There is a SLIGHT risk from SOUTHERN MO INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY…
There is a MARGINAL risk over parts of the MID/LOWER MS VALLEY…
Information contained in the SPC Outlook text indicates said risk areas will be under a very moist flow throughout the day, into the evening hours, with surface dew points in the 60F-70F range. A squall line/QLCS is approaching from the west, and may produce some embedded bowing structures. The main severe weather threat appears to be damaging straight line winds from bow echos for the most part. Analysis of upper air maps indicate the risk areas will be under the influence of a 50-70 kt jet at H85, 80-90 knot jet at H5, and 100-130 kt jet at H25. Analysis of the RAP and NAM-WRF models, utilizing F5 DATA Severe Weather software, indicates the highest probability for tornadoes to occur should lie within the ENHANCED risk area. Based on a blend of the two model solutions, tornadic activity may occur just outside of the ENHANCED area, and indicated by the circled area. EHI and STP values of 2+ indicate some tornadoes that may develop, could have the capability of becoming EF2-EF3 strength. Based on timing of the model solutions as of analysis, initiation of onset may occur from approximately 12:00 – 3:00 p.m. CST, through 6:00 p.m. CST. SPC suggests the severe threat may be expanded into more of SOUTHERN MO/NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN.
At the time of analysis, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado watch had been issued.
Residents within the risk areas, especially in the ENHANCED region, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS reports for current information.
ALL of the following graphics are linked to their respective sites, and will provide the latest information for you by clicking on them. You must click on the graphics, as the posted displays do not automatically update.
On the tropical front, the NHC has lowered the probability of cyclone development, regarding the broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean, to LOW (10%).
Based on my analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning, the broad low was detected. However, in analyzing the various satellite loops, it appears that most of the energy associated with this area, is bleeding over into the EPAC, and in the Monsoon trof.
Based on analysis of the current steering layers map, and forecast steering layers maps, the broad low should continue a very slow drift toward the west. The majority of the major global models tend to indicate this, with the NAVGEM being an outlier, bringing the into the Gulf of Honduras. Given the analysis and appearance of the situation, based on the satellite loops, it appears the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC have the correct solution. Based on the current wind shear forecast, I cannot rule out the GFS solution in developing another Tropical Storm in the EPAC in about 5-7 days. Unless forecast conditions change significantly, I do not foresee this area of disturbed weather becoming an INVEST, at least for the Caribbean side.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS