SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DISCUSSION / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:15 P.M. EST…NOV. 15, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING FOR PROBABILITY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: ENHANCED

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening all!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, with a SLIGHT risk surrounding the enhanced area for the CENTRAL and SOUTHERN PLAINS, and a MARGINAL risk from NEBRASKA to the WESTERN GULF COAST STATES in the Day 2 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730

day2probotlk_1730_any

The following could change, as this is from this afternoons analysis of data.  Based on analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software, forecast soundings of various parameters indicate the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms, lies within the SPC 30% probability legend, with the greatest tornado probability lying within the SPC SIGNIFICANT outline.  Based on a blend of the forecast soundings from 6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. CST, the highest probability for tornadoes may lie within the following outline on the F5 Data map:

F5 DATA NAM-WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY
f5nam.tor1

Forecast sounding data at the moment suggests tornadoes that may occur within the risk and outline area, could reach EF2-EF3 status.  I will not be able to update tomorrow as this event unfolds, however the Day 2 outlook is linked to the SPC site, and the following graphics are linked to their respective sites.  You will have to click on the graphics for current information, as the graphics do not automatically update.  Residents under the risk areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES
validww

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
validmd

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY
US

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
usa_None_anim

Analysis of the global models this afternoon still suggests some type of development north, to NNE of the Panama area in approximately 4-6 days.  The GFS has come down to a weaker system, while the ECMWF still hints at a weak low.  The CMC has come around to a more westerly motion in agreement with the other global modeling, bringing it in over Nicaragua, however suggesting it pulls northward after that.  The majority of the other models seem to suggest that this “low” will cross over into the Pacific, with the GFS turning it into another hurricane.

GFS
GFS.120ECMWF
ECMWF.120
CMC
ggem.144

GGEM.240
FIM8
fim8.2015112012.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

Given the uncertainty of whether this may wait to begin development in the PAC, should anything arise, I cannot fully rule out some type of development beginning in the extreme SW Caribbean during the next 96-120 hours, based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast still indicating the development of an upper level anticyclone over the area where the models are suggesting development, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5-2.0, and RH of at least 70% from 850 mb through 500 mb.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear20
FORECAST PW VALUES
gfs_atlantic_120_850_pw_ht

850MB /500 MB RH FORECAST
gfs_atlantic_120_850_rh_ht

gfs_atlantic_120_500_rh_ht
Current forecast steering does indicate at the moment, should development occur, a general westward motion into land seems to be the solution.  I will be monitoring this area by both global models and satellite products as the time gets nearer.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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