TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS (POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT) / SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY…ISSUED 7:50 P.M. EST…NOV. 14, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING FOR PROBABILITY

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 4
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening all!

First, I’ll start with a short mention on severe weather.  The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN KS…and a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM SOUTH TX INTO WRN KS…in the DAY 3 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day3otlk_0830

I have to work Monday, so  will not be bale to follow this.  I’ll try to update again on this tomorrow afternoon.

Analysis of the global models this evening, indicate the majority of the models are in agreement of another system developing in the southern to SWRN Caribbean Sea in about 5-7 days, very near Nicaragua.  The ECMWF only hints at this at the moment, with very weak low pressure, in the form of a trof.  The GFS, CMC GGEM, NAVGEM, and FIM8 models are in agreement of a possible Tropical Storm.  Albeit the models vary on timing of formation, although within the time frame discussed, they fairly much agree on development, and indicate a slow moving system.  The CMC is the most bullish, and takes it northward toward Cuba, as a hurricane, while the others indicate more of a motion toward the Nicaragua/Honduras area.  Upon analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, out to 144 hours (6 days), if development occurs, I would have to label the CMC the outlier at the moment.  IRT to 5-7 day time frame of the models, this is approximately how far out we saw agreement in the models when Kate developed.

ECMWF 120 HOUR
ECMWF.120
GFS 120 HOUR
GFS.120
GFS 180 HOUR
GFS.180
CMC GGEM 162 HOUR
GGEM.162
CMC GGEM 240 HOUR
GGEM.240
NAVGEM 144 HOUR
NAVGEM.144
FIM8 138 HOUR
FIM8.wind_10m_f138

I cannot rule out development as of analysis this evening, the the recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates an upper level anticyclone develops over the area during the same time frame depicted for development.  Albeit the MJO Index forecast indicates the MJO will not be entering Octants 8 and/or 1, the GFS and CFS indicates upward vertical velocity to increase over that area the same week this supposed development takes shape.

GFS 12Z WIND SHEAR FORECAST
850200shear20
850200shear24
GFS AND CFS VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECAST
gfsmjo

cfsMJO
I will be monitoring the area next week, and intend to update during my time off of work TUE./WED. as time allows.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS (POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT) / SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY…ISSUED 7:50 P.M. EST…NOV. 14, 2015

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. If GFS pans out…we are looking at 20 to 30 inches of snow. Yuck times 1000000

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, –waiting for “Larry”!

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