TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING FOR PROBABILITY
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening all!
First, I’ll start with a short mention on severe weather. The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN KS…and a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM SOUTH TX INTO WRN KS…in the DAY 3 Convective Outlook
Analysis of the global models this evening, indicate the majority of the models are in agreement of another system developing in the southern to SWRN Caribbean Sea in about 5-7 days, very near Nicaragua. The ECMWF only hints at this at the moment, with very weak low pressure, in the form of a trof. The GFS, CMC GGEM, NAVGEM, and FIM8 models are in agreement of a possible Tropical Storm. Albeit the models vary on timing of formation, although within the time frame discussed, they fairly much agree on development, and indicate a slow moving system. The CMC is the most bullish, and takes it northward toward Cuba, as a hurricane, while the others indicate more of a motion toward the Nicaragua/Honduras area. Upon analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, out to 144 hours (6 days), if development occurs, I would have to label the CMC the outlier at the moment. IRT to 5-7 day time frame of the models, this is approximately how far out we saw agreement in the models when Kate developed.
I cannot rule out development as of analysis this evening, the the recent wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates an upper level anticyclone develops over the area during the same time frame depicted for development. Albeit the MJO Index forecast indicates the MJO will not be entering Octants 8 and/or 1, the GFS and CFS indicates upward vertical velocity to increase over that area the same week this supposed development takes shape.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS