TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: KATE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
KATE POISED TO BECOME THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON
Good evening all!
Tropical Storm KATE is now moving to the NE, and is forecast to become a hurricane within the next 12-18 hours.
As of the 4:oo p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on KATE:
4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 9
Location: 32.2°N 72.7°W
Moving: NE at 30 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in
Max sustained: 70 mph
Current satellite loop imagery indicates not much change in the structure of the storm, however is is noted that cloud tops over the center are beginning to become colder, and the center a little more compact.
Based on the current wind shear product from CIMSS, KATE is under approximately 40-45 knots of wind shear. The current shear forecast indicates wind shear values to continue to increase from here on out, and KATE should become extra-tropical within the next 36-48 hours as she interacts with a large upper level low. KATE is forecast to continue to strengthen. As pointed out in the NHC discussion this morning, albeit wind shear is already at unfavorable levels, I concur with the NHC in that extremely cold temperatures aloft may be the reasoning behind her strengthening until she transitions. AMSU data early this morning, did indicate 500mb temperatures of approximately 10-11 degrees F, and 350 mb temperatures near -22.5F. This basically develops a very steep ELR (Environmental Lapse Rate) which allows for very strong thunderstorm development.
Based on this information, and with analysis of the Intensity Forecast Models indicating KATE will attain hurricane status, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 10/2100Z 32.2N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 34.3N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 40.0N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 42.0N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 43.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 48.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 58.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
KATE is now moving to the NE at 30 mph . Based on analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, there really isn’t any change in the forecast track thinking from last night, and is reflected in the 18Z ATCF Dynamic Model Guidance:
This will be my final update on KATE.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), Norman OK. has designated an ENHANCED risk of Severe Thunderstorms across SOUTHERN IA…NORTHERN MO…AND CENTRAL IL...in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.
There is a SLIGHT risk SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS TO NORTHEAST TX…
There is a MARGINAL risk SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO EAST TX…
Recent summary from the SPC:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL…WIND DAMAGE…AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX…OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
I will try to have an update sometime tomorrow on this severe weather, however my schedule will be up in the air, as my fiancee is having outpatient surgery tomorrow..time TBD.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS