TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: KATE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site. The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 11
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
INVEST 94L was upgraded to Tropical Depression TWELVE yesterday evening, and has subsequently been upgraded to Tropical Storm KATE. This makes the ELEVENTH storm of the 2015 hurricane season. Not bad for an El Nino year.
As of the 7:oo p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on KATE:
7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 9
Location: 26.7°N 76.0°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Based on current satellite loop imagery, KATE appears to have become slightly better organized over the past couple of hours, and appears to be a little more symmetric, with a little tighter core. Maximum sustained winds are up from 45 mph to 50 mph.
Earlier this afternoon, the NHC mentions KATE was in a low shear environment, in which her past track indicates she was. However at the moment, based on the current shear product from CIMSS, KATE appears to be in an area where shear values are around 10-15 knots. This could slow her strengthening, but appears as if this may be temporary, as the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates the upper level anticyclone to her SE, is forecast to build over her as she begins her northward turn. Shear values are forecast to slowly increase, based on analysis of the recent run of the NOAA RUC model TC Diagnosis. Based on the premise however, of the upper level anticyclone forecast to be over KATE in about 24 hours for a brief period, I do agree with the NHC in that further strengthening is called for, and I concur with the NHC intensity forecast for the most part. At the moment, I am not totally willing to rule out KATE making a run for minimal CATEGORY 1 Hurricane status for a brief moment, as the 18Z Forecast Intensity shows 6 of the models (3 of which are the widely used and more accurate SHIP, DSHP, and LGEM), bringing KATE to 75 mph within 36-48 hours. This could be an over estimate on the models, however I believe at the moment cannot be totally ruled out. *(It is noted, that during my writing of this synopsis, the upper level wind product from CIMSS did update, and the upper level anticyclone has moved closer toward the center of KATE, providing an excellent outflow channel to her north and east).
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1800Z…ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
ATCF 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
KATE has been moving toward the NW, and based on the latest satellite motion, and layer mean steering, it appears she may be making her turn more to the NNW, which in fact was just verified by the NHC on the latest update..
Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect this motion to continue through tonight, with a turn more to the north in the early a.m. on Tuesday, followed by the turn toward the NE late Tuesday evening, or early Wednesday morning. This is pretty much reflected in the 18Z Dynamic model track guidance, in which the models are very tightly clustered.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS