TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:10 P.M. EST…NOV. 09, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  KATE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 11
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

INVEST 94L was upgraded to Tropical Depression TWELVE yesterday evening, and has subsequently been upgraded to Tropical Storm KATE.  This makes the ELEVENTH storm of the 2015 hurricane season.  Not bad for an El Nino year.

As of the 7:oo p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on KATE:

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 9
Location: 26.7°N 76.0°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 50 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC.ELEVEN

HURREVAC.ELEVEN72

Based on current satellite loop imagery, KATE appears to have become slightly better organized over the past couple of hours, and appears to be a little more symmetric, with a little tighter core.  Maximum sustained winds are up from 45 mph to 50 mph.

RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Earlier this afternoon, the NHC mentions KATE was in a low shear environment, in which her past track indicates she was. However at the moment, based on the current shear product from CIMSS, KATE appears to be in an area where shear values are around 10-15 knots.  This could slow her strengthening, but appears as if this may be temporary, as the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates the upper level anticyclone to her SE, is forecast to build over her as she begins her northward turn. Shear values are forecast to slowly increase, based on analysis of the recent run of the NOAA RUC model TC Diagnosis.  Based on the premise however, of the upper level anticyclone forecast to be over KATE in about 24 hours for a brief period, I do agree with the NHC in that further strengthening is called for, and I concur with the NHC intensity forecast for the most part.  At the moment, I am not totally willing to rule out KATE making a run for minimal CATEGORY 1 Hurricane status for a brief moment, as the 18Z Forecast Intensity shows 6 of the models (3 of which are the widely used and more accurate SHIP, DSHP, and LGEM), bringing KATE to 75 mph within 36-48 hours.  This could be an over estimate on the models, however I believe at the moment cannot be totally ruled out. *(It is noted, that during my writing of this synopsis, the upper level wind product from CIMSS did update, and the upper level anticyclone has moved closer toward the center of KATE, providing an excellent outflow channel to her north and east).

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS 2200Z
tccaptureUPPER

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 09/2100Z 25.5N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 30.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 33.6N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 36.8N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1800Z…ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

ATCF 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
KATE 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
KATE has been moving toward the NW, and based on the latest satellite motion, and layer mean steering, it appears she may be making her turn more to the NNW, which in fact was just verified by the NHC on the latest update.. 

Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect this motion to continue through tonight, with a turn more to the north in the early a.m. on Tuesday, followed by the turn toward the NE late Tuesday evening, or early Wednesday morning.  This is pretty much reflected in the 18Z Dynamic model track guidance, in which the models are very tightly clustered.

CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm1

18Z ATCF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
KATE18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor KATE for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 7:10 P.M. EST…NOV. 09, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Well, LT, if Larry doesn’t make it this year, it should be back once the cycle completes. Isn’t that every 6 years? I don’t remember. If so, that would make it 2021. Thank you, Storm, for staying on top of this in the midst of your work schedule. I know it takes a lot and appreciate your efforts.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’m actually “rooting” for one more named storm, that would be “Larry”. That is my first name! (actually it’s Laurence, but everybody calls me Larry!).

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