TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 94L
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*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
Previous INVEST 93L which was located in the extreme southern BOC, has been absorbed by an approaching cold front.
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 94L has become better organized today. As of the 18Z ATCF FTP product, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
MOVEMENT: NW 18 MPH
MAX. WIND: 35 MPH
PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.83 IN
Based on satellite loop imagery, the disturbance has become better organized over the past few hours.
The current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates upper level winds have become slightly more conducive, and wind shear values over the system are on the order of only 5-10 knots. Upper level satellite derived winds indicate a 200 mb outflow channel, or “jet” may be developing just north of the disturbance. The 200 mb streamlines shown in the wind shear product may be indicating the upper level anticyclone forecast by the GFS wind shear forecast maps, may be taking shape.
INVEST 94L CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on the current wind shear forecast, upper level winds are supposed to become more conducive for further development by late tonight, or early tomorrow, and remain favorable for approximately 48-54 hours from 12Z this morning.
Analysis of both TPW forecast maps, and 500 MB RH forecast maps, the disturbance should not be affected by dry air, given TPW values of 1.5 – 2.0 in, and relative humidity values up through the 500 mb level of at least 70%. Based on the combination of these factors, should they pan out, I do believe, and agree with the NHC that we may see a depression, or tropical storm develop. I believe this may occur during the next 24-36 hours. In fact, the reliable forecast intensity models at the moment, bring this to a 60-70 mph tropical storm by day 5 in the forecast period, from the 18Z run. This could be possible, should the forecast upper level winds pan out. The NHC has designated a HIGH (70%) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
NHC GRAPHICAL .
18Z ATCF INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE
The disturbance is moving to the NW at approximately 15-18 mph. Based on analysis of the current steering layer mean, and forecast steering layers maps, I expect the NW motion to continue, through tomorrow morning, with a gradual turn more to the NNW by late Monday afternoon/ early evening. By Tuesday morning, the system should begin a more northward motion, and by 48 hours out in the period from 12Z this morning, should make the turn to the NE. This is shown in the 18Z ATCF Dynamic Track Guidance, and is inline with the majority of the models, especially the TVCN/TVCC.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes, and will not have another update until sometime on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS