INVEST 93L / EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DISTURBANCE “QUICKCAST” SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 06, 2015…7:30 P.M. EST.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION:  MONITORING

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

This synopsis is based on a very quick analysis of forecast tools, hence “quickcast”

The area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring, previously in the Gulf of Honduras, has now entered the extreme eastern BOC, and has been designated INVEST 93L.

Based on the ATCF 18Z FTP product, the following was available on INVEST 93L:

LOCATED: 19.8N;91.0W
MAX. WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.83 IN
MOVEMENT: WNW 12 MPH

NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0

Satellite loop imagery indicates a poorly organized system.

INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
avn93L-lalo

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
jsl-l

Analysis of current wind shear products indicate upper level winds are currently marginal for development.  The current wind shear forecast however indicates upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable after the next 48 hours.

Satellite derived surface winds tend to indicate a weak surface reflection, but indicate a weak, broad surface circulation may be trying to form.

CIMSS LOWER LEVEL WINDS
wg8ir

Based on analysis of the wind shear forecast, and the premise of the INVEST merging with an approaching cold front in a few days, I really do not foresee tropical development with this, although some slight, slow organization may occur, prior to upper level winds becoming unfavorable.  Given that it is forecast to merge with a cold front, which would then put it in a baroclinic zone, I will be monitoring for the slight probability inclement weather along the Gulf Coast, as forecast steering indicates the current WNW motion to become more NNW then northward within the next 30-36 hours.

Elsewhere, showers and cloudiness have increased over the past few hours in association with an area of disturbed weather located over the Lesser Antilles (noted in above satellite loop).  Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development, and I have not been able to detect any surface reflection or circulation as of my analysis this evening.  However, global models are in fair agreement of a weak low developing in the central Bahamas in about 72 hours, as upper level winds are forecast to become more favorable for slow development.  As this occurs during the next few days, we may see a surface reflection and LLC take shape.  Models are pretty much in agreement of this being a weak low.  At the moment, it is not known if this could become strong enough to warrant a named system, as models move it fairly quickly WNW then re-curve it at around 30N toward the NE within about a 36-48 hour time frame, if and when development occurs.

I will continue to monitor both areas for any significant changes, and will most likely have an update sometime Sunday afternoon.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to INVEST 93L / EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DISTURBANCE “QUICKCAST” SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 06, 2015…7:30 P.M. EST.

  1. originallt says:

    Morning, Storm, wow, that feature is taking shape over the SE Bahamas this Sunday morning. Do you think it will be drawn up the E. coast, or turn NE out to sea?

  2. dellamom says:

    ThAnk you, Storm. I know it is hard to fit this in with your schedule

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Pretty active November for such a strong El Nino wouldn’t you say?

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