TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
This synopsis is based on a very quick analysis of forecast tools, hence “quickcast”
The area of disturbed weather I have been monitoring, previously in the Gulf of Honduras, has now entered the extreme eastern BOC, and has been designated INVEST 93L.
Based on the ATCF 18Z FTP product, the following was available on INVEST 93L:
MAX. WIND: 30 MPH
PRESSURE: 1010 MB / 29.83 IN
MOVEMENT: WNW 12 MPH
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
Analysis of current wind shear products indicate upper level winds are currently marginal for development. The current wind shear forecast however indicates upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable after the next 48 hours.
Satellite derived surface winds tend to indicate a weak surface reflection, but indicate a weak, broad surface circulation may be trying to form.
Based on analysis of the wind shear forecast, and the premise of the INVEST merging with an approaching cold front in a few days, I really do not foresee tropical development with this, although some slight, slow organization may occur, prior to upper level winds becoming unfavorable. Given that it is forecast to merge with a cold front, which would then put it in a baroclinic zone, I will be monitoring for the slight probability inclement weather along the Gulf Coast, as forecast steering indicates the current WNW motion to become more NNW then northward within the next 30-36 hours.
Elsewhere, showers and cloudiness have increased over the past few hours in association with an area of disturbed weather located over the Lesser Antilles (noted in above satellite loop). Upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development, and I have not been able to detect any surface reflection or circulation as of my analysis this evening. However, global models are in fair agreement of a weak low developing in the central Bahamas in about 72 hours, as upper level winds are forecast to become more favorable for slow development. As this occurs during the next few days, we may see a surface reflection and LLC take shape. Models are pretty much in agreement of this being a weak low. At the moment, it is not known if this could become strong enough to warrant a named system, as models move it fairly quickly WNW then re-curve it at around 30N toward the NE within about a 36-48 hour time frame, if and when development occurs.
I will continue to monitor both areas for any significant changes, and will most likely have an update sometime Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS