TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MARGINAL
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather I mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, continues to spin near the Gulf of Honduras. While I am not expecting development of this area, satellite derived winds and 925 mb vorticity data from the PSU e-WALL site tend to indicate a weak surface reflection may be present. The main portion of the vorticity however is associated with a mid-upper level low. I will continue to monitor this area for possible entrance into the extreme southern BOC.
Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates in the latest runs, the majority of models are now onboard in developing an area of low pressure in about 6-7 days in the western Atlantic, IVO north of the Lesser Antilles/Hispaniola area. Yesterday, only two of the models indicated this. The outlier is the CMC which indicates more of a coastal/offshore low near the eastern U.S. I will be looking at this as the time frame closes to about 96 hours out. IF it pans out, there could be the slight probability of seeing one more named system before the end of the season, albeit most likely sub-tropical.
The Storm Prediction Center has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS and FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY OF TX…
Based on information obtained in analysis of F5Data software, using a blend of the GFS and NAM-WRF solutions, isolated tornado activity may occur with the tornado risk areas, but appears the probability could be more prevalent late this afternoon/early evening, in the circled area on the following map.
The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for tomorrow in the Day 2 Outlook:
I work the next 4 days, so I may not have another update until sometime Sunday afternoon.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS