TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EST…NOV. 04, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MARGINAL

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, continues to spin near the Gulf of Honduras.  While I am not expecting development of this area, satellite derived winds and 925 mb vorticity data from the PSU e-WALL site tend to indicate a weak surface reflection may be present.  The main portion of the vorticity however is associated with a mid-upper level low.  I will continue to monitor this area for possible entrance into the extreme southern BOC.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

PSU E-WALL 925 MB VORTICITY
over_18

Elsewhere, analysis of the global models indicates in the latest runs, the majority of models are now onboard in developing an area of low pressure in about 6-7 days in the western Atlantic, IVO north of the Lesser Antilles/Hispaniola area.  Yesterday, only two of the models indicated this.  The outlier is the CMC which indicates more of a coastal/offshore low near the eastern U.S.  I will be looking at this as the time frame closes to about 96 hours out.  IF it pans out, there could be the slight probability of seeing one more named system before the end of the season, albeit most likely sub-tropical.

GFS
GFS144

ECMWF
ECMWF 144
CMC
CMC.144
FIM8
windFIM8_10m_f144

FIM9
windFIM9_10m_f144

The Storm Prediction Center has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS and FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VICINITY OF TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED TO OUTLOOK TEXT)
day1otlk_1300

Based on information obtained in analysis of F5Data software, using a blend of the GFS and NAM-WRF solutions, isolated tornado activity may occur with the tornado risk areas, but appears the probability could be more prevalent late this afternoon/early evening, in the circled area on the following map.

F5 DATA MAP
f5 severe

Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS information throughout the day.

The SPC has designated a SLIGHT risk for tomorrow in the Day 2 Outlook:

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


The following graphics are linked…click on them for current information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

I work the next 4 days, so I may not have another update until sometime Sunday afternoon.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:15 A.M. EST…NOV. 04, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Maybe not yet, Greg! Storm, is something “brewing” in the NW Caribbean ?

    • Yes, and just near the Leeward Islands. The area in the NW Caribbean is the one I had in my report…either my last report, or the one before.

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

    • LT..from yesterdays synopsis:

      The area of disturbed weather I mentioned in yesterday’s synopsis, continues to spin near the Gulf of Honduras. While I am not expecting development of this area, satellite derived winds and 925 mb vorticity data from the PSU e-WALL site tend to indicate a weak surface reflection may be present. The main portion of the vorticity however is associated with a mid-upper level low. I will continue to monitor this area for possible entrance into the extreme southern BOC.

      • dellamom says:

        Working on a trial and logging 12 hour days (and then some) so I just got a look at the site. I see the spinning west of the Leeward Islands, but is there also something trying to spin over the southern edge of the Bay of Campeche or just over land at that point. It almost looks like it is mostly in the Gulf/Bay and partly in the Pacific. Or is that just smoke, mirrors and an overactive imagination?

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thank you mr storm.Mr storm can we say now we can put a fork in the season concerns for the gulf?

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, sir.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

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