TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…NOV. 03, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

An area of disturbed weather, with noted cyclonic turning in the satellite loop, is located in the Caribbean.  This area is associated with an upper and mid level low, or the “TUTT”.  There is no probability of development with this.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT SHOWING TUTT
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Global models do not indicate any development over the next 5 days.  The models are divergent on a low, with the GFS showing one in the Atlantic in about 8 days, moving it slowly in a meandering motion and then NE, and the ECMWF and CMC both indicating a possible weak coastal/offshore low which quickly moves NE.  I’ll be looking at this, but given my work schedule, won’t have another update until probably Sunday afternoon sometime.  In any event, it looks as if the season could be winding down.

GFS
GFS
ECMWF
ECMWF 192
CMC
CMC 168
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center indicates there are no Severe Thunderstorms in the forecast.  However, the SPC indicates a MARGINAL risk for tomorrow, and a SLIGHT risk for Thursday.  I work Thursday, so please utilize the linked graphics below to your advantage.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…NOV. 03, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm , yup, things seem to be winding down. Glad you are busy, busy can=$, something we all can use. But we have to be careful not to, “over do it”. Health comes first!

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