TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
An area of disturbed weather, with noted cyclonic turning in the satellite loop, is located in the Caribbean. This area is associated with an upper and mid level low, or the “TUTT”. There is no probability of development with this.
Global models do not indicate any development over the next 5 days. The models are divergent on a low, with the GFS showing one in the Atlantic in about 8 days, moving it slowly in a meandering motion and then NE, and the ECMWF and CMC both indicating a possible weak coastal/offshore low which quickly moves NE. I’ll be looking at this, but given my work schedule, won’t have another update until probably Sunday afternoon sometime. In any event, it looks as if the season could be winding down.
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center indicates there are no Severe Thunderstorms in the forecast. However, the SPC indicates a MARGINAL risk for tomorrow, and a SLIGHT risk for Thursday. I work Thursday, so please utilize the linked graphics below to your advantage.
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS