TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EST…NOV. 01, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
money-dog-300x300

Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Haven’t been here the past few days to work.

Satellite loop imagery shows the tropics are quiet today.  The squall line which will be responsible for a severe weather threat to the central and eastern Gulf coast area can be clearly seen in the satellite loop.  A elongated surface low is associated with this, however the entire system is associated with a frontal system.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

Analysis of the global models do not indicate any tropical development during the next 7-10 days.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a small part of the CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION…

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST REGION…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

day1probotlk_1630_torn

Unfortunately, the maps from the F5 DATA Severe Weather Software have not updated since 00Z yesterday evening…therefore there is no update data for parameter outlines.  However, based on analysis of the most current SPC SREF model run, the most probable area for the severe weather is within the risk areas.  Based on the SREF however, I would be inclined to say the isolated tornado threat could extend further west than shown, and could lie within the 2% tornado probability area through early evening.

Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements and warnings.  The following graphics are linked to their sites, and will provide up to date information by clicking on the graphics.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

My next synopsis will most likely be on Tuesday.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
Image | This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:55 P.M. EST…NOV. 01, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    LT, I think you may be right. Happy November everyone. Storm, thank you for all you do. I know how it is to work around multiple occupations and appreciate the sleep time you often give up for us. The rain around here was not consistently heavy, but bursts of heavy rain interspersed with persistent light to moderate rain, continuing unabated from Friday night to the present. I understand the rain is expected to finally stop sometime Monday. This weekend was the annual Voodoo Music Festival in New Orleans and I am sure the numbers will reflect that the weather took its toll on attendance. Storm, what sort of winter do you think we will be looking at in the southeaster portion of the U.S. this year?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Kind of leaning with LT on this. What do you think.

    I owe you a donation Senior Chief. Let me figure out my future health issues and a target date for moving to IAH and I will get you something.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Well, looks like the 2015 Hurricane season for the GOMEX and Atlantic Basin, could be up. What you post as to the # and types of storms, could be the final totals.

    • Looks that way. Models are divergent on a low in about 7-8 days…GFS showing one in the ATL, moving away to sea…CMC and ECMWF showing weak coastal low, quickly heading out to sea. Have to see what pans out. But, for the most part, we may be pretty much finished.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s