TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Haven’t been here the past few days to work.
Satellite loop imagery shows the tropics are quiet today. The squall line which will be responsible for a severe weather threat to the central and eastern Gulf coast area can be clearly seen in the satellite loop. A elongated surface low is associated with this, however the entire system is associated with a frontal system.
Analysis of the global models do not indicate any tropical development during the next 7-10 days.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over a small part of the CNTRL/ERN GULF CST REGION…
…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF CST REGION…
Unfortunately, the maps from the F5 DATA Severe Weather Software have not updated since 00Z yesterday evening…therefore there is no update data for parameter outlines. However, based on analysis of the most current SPC SREF model run, the most probable area for the severe weather is within the risk areas. Based on the SREF however, I would be inclined to say the isolated tornado threat could extend further west than shown, and could lie within the 2% tornado probability area through early evening.
Residents within the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements and warnings. The following graphics are linked to their sites, and will provide up to date information by clicking on the graphics.
My next synopsis will most likely be on Tuesday.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS