TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:35 P.M. EDT..OCT 28, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MARGINAL

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

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Good day everyone!

The tropics are again quiet.  Analysis of he global models still shows the CMC being an outlier in developing another storm in the Atlantic, bringing it to north of the Lesser Antilles by 240 hours as a 991 mb storm.  Again, I have to rule this out, as wind shear is forecast to be fairly brisk over the Atlantic.

ATLANTIC WIDE SATELLITE LOOP
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CMC 240 HOUR FORECAST
CMC240

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms from parts of the SE, INTO THE UPR OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND…

There is a MARGINAL risk OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LWR MS VLY…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day1otlk_1630

Based on analysis of information in the outlook, and forecast sounding parameters from F5 Data Severe Weather software, the NAM model suggests the area most likely to experience the greater probability of severe weather, and isolated tornado incident lies within the outline of the following map.  Largest threat today appears it will be in the form of damaging thunderstorm winds, with the exception of a 5% probability of hail in the smaller, marginal probability area.

F5 DATA NAM MODEL
f5 nam severe

Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather radio, and NWS Statements.

ALL of the following graphics are linked for up to date information. 

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

Not sure when my next update will be, as I work the next 3 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:35 P.M. EDT..OCT 28, 2015

  1. Hi gang! Haven’t been ignoring you…Been at work most of this week: Mon., Thu, Fri, today

  2. originallt says:

    As an aside, quite a Hurricane near the Arabian Peninsula , A CAT 4!! Nice structure and symmetry to it!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. I wound up with exactly 3.00″ of rain. Top wind gust 30 mph. I’m sure it was higher near the shoreline. Very mild here. 70F already at 10:38am. High will be about 75F before the cold front gets thru. Friday should be back to normal, M. Sunny and about 60F for a high.

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