TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: MARGINAL
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
Good day everyone!
The tropics are again quiet. Analysis of he global models still shows the CMC being an outlier in developing another storm in the Atlantic, bringing it to north of the Lesser Antilles by 240 hours as a 991 mb storm. Again, I have to rule this out, as wind shear is forecast to be fairly brisk over the Atlantic.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a MARGINAL risk for Severe Thunderstorms from parts of the SE, INTO THE UPR OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND…
There is a MARGINAL risk OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LWR MS VLY…
Based on analysis of information in the outlook, and forecast sounding parameters from F5 Data Severe Weather software, the NAM model suggests the area most likely to experience the greater probability of severe weather, and isolated tornado incident lies within the outline of the following map. Largest threat today appears it will be in the form of damaging thunderstorm winds, with the exception of a 5% probability of hail in the smaller, marginal probability area.
F5 DATA NAM MODEL
Residents in the risk areas should monitor NOAA Weather radio, and NWS Statements.
ALL of the following graphics are linked for up to date information.
Not sure when my next update will be, as I work the next 3 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS