TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
The GOMEX low which brought flooding to TX and surrounding areas, should begin to start weakening. Surface analysis has indicated the frontal boundary associated with the low is becoming occluded. A band of moderate to heavy rain will be affecting the west FL. peninsula today.
Satellite imagery indicates an area of disturbed weather in the CATL. I am not expecting development of this area due to surrounding dry air, and the premise of upper level winds remaining only marginal to unfavorable.
Analysis of the global models this morning indicate no tropical development over the next 7-10 days. The only outlier is the CMC. Given the current wind shear forecast, I have to discount the CMC solution.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the NORTHEAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS in the Day 2 Convective outlook. I will try to have an update tomorrow as it becomes the Day 1 Outlook.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS