TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:05 A.M. EDT…OCT. 27, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

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Good day everyone!

The GOMEX low which brought flooding to TX and surrounding areas, should begin to start weakening.  Surface analysis has indicated the frontal boundary associated with the low is becoming occluded.  A band of moderate to heavy rain will be affecting the west FL. peninsula today.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP
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Satellite imagery indicates an area of disturbed weather in the CATL.  I am not expecting development of this area due to surrounding dry air, and the premise of upper level winds remaining only marginal to unfavorable.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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Analysis of the global models this morning indicate no tropical development over the next 7-10 days.  The only outlier is the CMC.  Given the current wind shear forecast, I have to discount the CMC solution.

CMC SOLUTION
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CMC240

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has designated a MARGINAL risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the NORTHEAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS in the Day 2 Convective outlook.  I will try to have an update tomorrow as it becomes the Day 1 Outlook.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (CLICK ON THE IMAGE)
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SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 11:05 A.M. EDT…OCT. 27, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm. Expecting a good 1-2″ of rain from this system and pretty windy from the SE to S at 20-30mph., with higher gusts, especially near the shore line. Strong pressure gradient from that low to the departing High pressure off the coast. My Baro now is still at 30.50″, pretty strong but it is weakening slowly. T’ll report in a tell you what I’m getting up here.

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