GULF OF MEXICO LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EDT…OCT. 25, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the center of the current Gulf “low” to be located near 28N;94W.  The low is moving toward the east at the moment.  I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours.  There has been  slight change in the forecast steering currents, and based on this, the global modeling is in agreement of the low moving further toward the E-ENE, and coming ashore over the very eastern portion of LA in about 36-48 hours.  This of course, changes the areas affected by the winds, and spreads the rainfall area further east, into portions of MS, possibly the extreme western portions of the FL. Panhandle.  Based on analysis of the forecast 10 meter wind velocities, areas east of the center of this low, should experience sustained winds of 30-35 mph along the coast, to slightly inland. Based on this, coastal flooding and beach erosion may occur from LA to the western FL. Panhandle within the forecast time frame.  Once this moves in over land, I expect a steady weakening trend to occur.  This should begin within the next 48 hours.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

vis-l

GFS 30 HOUR 10 METER WIND FORECAST
gfs 10m wind

STORMSURF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST (CLICK TO ANIMATE)

Heavy rainfall is still expected over portions of LA, and will extend into AL/MS as the system continues eastward, until weakening.  The following are the current cumulative total precipitation values for the next 5 days:

GFS
GFS 5 dayPRECIP
CMC
cmc 5 day precip

LOUISIANA HEAVY RAINFALL STATEMENT
imageLA_full1

LOUISIANA COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
imageLA_full3

I urge residents of the areas that may be affected to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories.  The following graphics are linked to their respective sites, please click on them for up to date information, as the graphics do not update automatically.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)

A threat for tornadoes close to the coast is probable, and is reflected in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (CLICK ON THE IMAGE)
day1otlk_1630

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)

PLEASE, use the tools I have provided.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to GULF OF MEXICO LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EDT…OCT. 25, 2015

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, I’ve been looking at the radar and thinking (dangerous, I know) that it looks like the circulatory pattern of this thing is almost like it is trying to close on an eye. I know it is not a hurricane, but this thing just won’t die. If you look at the radar out of the New Orleans area (Slidell, I think), it looks like the circular bands of weather are almost making a closed circle just near Lake Pontchartrain. It also looks like the tail end of that huge eastern band that went through us and through Mobile wants to swat your area, too. For not being a hurricane anymore, Patricia’s remnants are giving a whole lotta people what-for.

    • Yeah…saw that plainly on the visible sat loop. We were having this discussion on one of the Facebook groups I’m in…where someone asked why it wasn’t being named. The type of system this remnant is, is like the extratropical cyclones (familiar lows we see bring rain and severe weather). They will produce eye like features sometimes. However, this is attached to a frontal system, which makes it more of a baroclinic system vice barotropic. That’s why no name.

      http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, Glad you guys along The Gulf, appear all to be OK. That rain looked very heavy on RADAR.

    • dellamom says:

      The Southshore had heavy rain, but not the Northshore. Any areas prone to coastal flooding have had a lot of water due to the wind pushing the water inland, moreso than from the rain. The community of Chauvin, Louisiana may have been hit by a tornado, but as of the time I left home this morning, the mayor was awaiting advices from the weather service as to whether it was actually a tornado vs. high wind. A trailer was toppled onto the owner, who was taken to the hospital and is expected to recover, and multiple facilities have lost roofs. For coastal residents, this is as bad as a minimal hurricane or a tropical storm. Prayers to people east of us who are getting the weather today and for those who have thus far suffered losses. Mike and Greg, stay safe, and my prayers are going out to you and yours in particular.

  3. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. So far on the Northshore we’ve had moderate but steady rain. The dry ground has managed to soak it in, and our yard just started getting squishy an hour or so ago. I know it’s not passed yet, but if we have to have hurricane-associated weather, this is the best way to get it. Thanks for watching out for us, Storm

  4. Mike Doll says:

    . Just waiting for the weather to get here in the Mobile area!!
    Thanks Storm

  5. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm. Just waiting for the weather to get here in the Mobile area!!

  6. Mac says:

    Thanks Storm! After more than 20 days with no recorded rainfall, I don’t think we’ll have too much of a problem with 4 inches during the next 36 hours. 7 inches would cause some street flooding, especially in New Orleans.

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