TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the center of the current Gulf “low” to be located near 28N;94W. The low is moving toward the east at the moment. I expect this motion to continue during the next 24 hours. There has been slight change in the forecast steering currents, and based on this, the global modeling is in agreement of the low moving further toward the E-ENE, and coming ashore over the very eastern portion of LA in about 36-48 hours. This of course, changes the areas affected by the winds, and spreads the rainfall area further east, into portions of MS, possibly the extreme western portions of the FL. Panhandle. Based on analysis of the forecast 10 meter wind velocities, areas east of the center of this low, should experience sustained winds of 30-35 mph along the coast, to slightly inland. Based on this, coastal flooding and beach erosion may occur from LA to the western FL. Panhandle within the forecast time frame. Once this moves in over land, I expect a steady weakening trend to occur. This should begin within the next 48 hours.
Heavy rainfall is still expected over portions of LA, and will extend into AL/MS as the system continues eastward, until weakening. The following are the current cumulative total precipitation values for the next 5 days:
I urge residents of the areas that may be affected to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories. The following graphics are linked to their respective sites, please click on them for up to date information, as the graphics do not update automatically.
A threat for tornadoes close to the coast is probable, and is reflected in the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:
PLEASE, use the tools I have provided.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS