TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA (EPAC) TO AFFECT TX/LA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…OCT. 23, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING GOMEX

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

First, I’d like to begin with asking for you to pray for residents in Mexico, in the path of Major Hurricane PATRICIA.  Patricia became the strongest hurricane recorded for the EPAC and Atlantic basins this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph, with higher gusts.  Excerpt from the NHC Forecast Discussion at 11:00 a.m. EDT:

Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.

PATRICIA is forecast to continue moving toward the north, briefly, and should begin to turn toward the NNE, and continue this motion until dissipated.

EPAC SATELLITE LOOP
avnepac-l

Based on analysis of the global models this morning, the remnants of PATRICIA are forecast to exit either just along the coastline of Texas, or slightly offshore, and move along or near the Gulf coast toward the ENE from the central Texas coast, to southern LA during the next 96-120 hours.  Models are pretty much in agreement with this scenario.  The CMC GGEM is the strongest with the system, at 999 mb.  However, given the forecast proximity to the coast, and the premise that upper level winds will not really be conducive for tropical development, I have to consider the CMC the outlier right now.  However, given these factors, the forecast low should remain sub or non tropical, in which case, some instances of wind shear could aid in it’s overall strength.  At the moment, based on analysis of various models, mainly the 10M wind forecast from the GFS, and the 850mb winds forecast from the ECMWF (with wind reduction to the surface calculated in), areas along the immediate coastal areas mentioned may very well experience sustained winds of 35-45 mph.

GFS
GFS.66gif
ECMWF
ECMWF 72
CMC
CMC 66
FIM9
windFIM9_10m_f072

GFS SURFACE WIND FORECAST
GFS 10M WIND
ECMWF 850 MB WIND FORECAST
ECMWF 850 WIND
Given the southeasterly fetch, this will most likely induce coastal flooding along the TX/LA coasts, along with beach erosion.  Current projected wave heights as of this morning were 7-10ft near the coast, and 14-18ft just offshore.  Residents along the area are urged to stay away from beaches and off the water due to the high probability of rip currents, in addition to coastal flooding.

NOAA WAVE WATCH / STORMSURF WAVE MODELS (LOOP)

gmex.hs.f057h

In addition to coastal flooding, inland flooding may also occur, as some areas are forecast to receive in excess of 5-10 inches of rainfall  over portions of Texas, and in excess of 3-6 inches over portions of Louisiana during the next 72-96 hours.  Even though this may be non tropical or sub-tropical in nature, the probability still exists that an isolated tornado event could occur.

TEXAS/LOUISIANA FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS
image_full5

image_full12

The following maps are projected rainfall amounts for 72 hours, 120 hours, and 7 days:

NAM 72 HOUR
NAM 72 HOUR PRECIP
GFS
GFS 72 HOUR PRECIP
CMC
CMC.GEM 72 HOUR PRECIP
CMC 5 DAY
CMC.GEM 120 HOUR PRECIP
GFS 7 DAY
GFS 7 DAY TOTAL PRECIP

Based on analysis of the global models,  I currently believe the heaviest of the weather should be confined to TX and LA.  Some rain will most likely extend eastward later in the time period, but should not be anywhere near what TX and LA will receive.

When and if development occurs, I will have a much better idea on what the extent eastward of the system may be.

I urge residents of the areas that may be affected to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories.  The following graphics are linked to their respective sites, please click on them for up to date information, as the graphics do not update automatically.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
US

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
validmd

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY
validww

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR ZOOMED VIEW)
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I will most likely not be able to update again until sometime Sunday afternoon…so PLEASE, use the tools I have provided.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA (EPAC) TO AFFECT TX/LA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…OCT. 23, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you, Storm. Wonder if I’ll feel some affects from it up here in CT. by Wed/Thurs next week?

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm. Sounds like SE TX is going to have some interesting weather…..

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