TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: MONITORING GOMEX
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
First, I’d like to begin with asking for you to pray for residents in Mexico, in the path of Major Hurricane PATRICIA. Patricia became the strongest hurricane recorded for the EPAC and Atlantic basins this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 200 mph, with higher gusts. Excerpt from the NHC Forecast Discussion at 11:00 a.m. EDT:
Some fluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is expected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.
PATRICIA is forecast to continue moving toward the north, briefly, and should begin to turn toward the NNE, and continue this motion until dissipated.
Based on analysis of the global models this morning, the remnants of PATRICIA are forecast to exit either just along the coastline of Texas, or slightly offshore, and move along or near the Gulf coast toward the ENE from the central Texas coast, to southern LA during the next 96-120 hours. Models are pretty much in agreement with this scenario. The CMC GGEM is the strongest with the system, at 999 mb. However, given the forecast proximity to the coast, and the premise that upper level winds will not really be conducive for tropical development, I have to consider the CMC the outlier right now. However, given these factors, the forecast low should remain sub or non tropical, in which case, some instances of wind shear could aid in it’s overall strength. At the moment, based on analysis of various models, mainly the 10M wind forecast from the GFS, and the 850mb winds forecast from the ECMWF (with wind reduction to the surface calculated in), areas along the immediate coastal areas mentioned may very well experience sustained winds of 35-45 mph.
GFS SURFACE WIND FORECAST
ECMWF 850 MB WIND FORECAST
Given the southeasterly fetch, this will most likely induce coastal flooding along the TX/LA coasts, along with beach erosion. Current projected wave heights as of this morning were 7-10ft near the coast, and 14-18ft just offshore. Residents along the area are urged to stay away from beaches and off the water due to the high probability of rip currents, in addition to coastal flooding.
NOAA WAVE WATCH / STORMSURF WAVE MODELS (LOOP)
In addition to coastal flooding, inland flooding may also occur, as some areas are forecast to receive in excess of 5-10 inches of rainfall over portions of Texas, and in excess of 3-6 inches over portions of Louisiana during the next 72-96 hours. Even though this may be non tropical or sub-tropical in nature, the probability still exists that an isolated tornado event could occur.
The following maps are projected rainfall amounts for 72 hours, 120 hours, and 7 days:
Based on analysis of the global models, I currently believe the heaviest of the weather should be confined to TX and LA. Some rain will most likely extend eastward later in the time period, but should not be anywhere near what TX and LA will receive.
When and if development occurs, I will have a much better idea on what the extent eastward of the system may be.
I urge residents of the areas that may be affected to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements and advisories. The following graphics are linked to their respective sites, please click on them for up to date information, as the graphics do not update automatically.
I will most likely not be able to update again until sometime Sunday afternoon…so PLEASE, use the tools I have provided.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS