TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EDT…OCT. 21, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY: SLIGHT

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Areas of disturbed weather are located NE of the Lesser Antilles, and in the CATL.  Upper level winds over both areas are not favorable for development at the moment.  IRT the disturbed weather near 55-60W, upper level winds may become marginally conducive over the next few days, however only one model shows subtropical development…the CMC.  The remaining models keep it as an open trof of lower pressure.

ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY WIDE VIEW
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Once again, analysis of the early morning run of the global models indicates some of the models feel the season may not quite be over yet.  I will be monitoring further runs, and if continuity continues, will be monitoring the W. GOMEX in the next few days.

GFS
GFS
ECMWF
ECMWF
UKMETUKMET
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM SRN/CNTRL NM EWD INTO WRN TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
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day1probotlk_1300_wind

day1probotlk_1300_hail

The current forecast wind and hail threat are at the same probability, however hail should be limited in severity, given the forecast lifted indices of only -2 to -4. 

Based on analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, current NAM run, tornadic activity if forecast to occur within the SPC probability areas, with the soundings suggesting the area most at risk, to lie within the circled area on the F5 Data map.

F5 DATA NAM TORNADO
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The following graphics are linked for you to use for up to date information.  IF a TORNADO WARNING is issued for your area, move to safe shelter IMMEDIATELY.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

Modeling still indicates copious amounts of rainfall during the next 72 hours and into the 7 day forecast period.  A combination of an upper level system, and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to bring heavy amounts of rain to portions of TX.  Forecast precipitation amounts are forecast to increase by day 7, which I believe will be due to moisture added from the remnant of now Tropical Storm Patricia in the EPAC, which is forecast to turn north into Mexico in a few days.  For up to date information, warnings and statements, please use the linked NWS Hazards display map for your area.

NAM 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION
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GFS 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION
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GFS 7 DAY PRECIPITATION
GFS 7PRECIP
Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EDT…OCT. 21, 2015

  1. Mac says:

    Hurricane Patricia which will hit west-central Mexico today is the strongest hurricane on record in the NHC’s area of responsibility. 175 knot winds and an 880 mb central pressure!!! I can’t imagine the devastation this storm will inflict. Prayers go out to all those facing this monster of a hurricane.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230834.shtml?

  2. originallt says:

    Quite a storm about to hit Mexico, then give Tex. and other places flooding rains!

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    I look to be around the GFS day seven range of 4-5 inches. hmmmm….I’m about 10-15 minutes from LA border.

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