TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
The most recent area of disturbed weather, which had been located near the Yucatan peninsula, has moved over land, and is moving toward the west. I expect this motion to continue for the next 24-36 hours. Analysis of current close up satellite loop imagery indicates with current location, and forecast steering, the disturbed weather will most likely not exit into the BOC. With this feature being over land, development should not occur, and is reflected in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.
Analysis of the recent 925 mb vorticity product from the PSU e-WALL also indicates the majority of energy over the area has transferred to the current PAC system, TD 20.
One word of note on T.D. 20 in the EPAC…model guidance currently indicates the system to eventually curve northward, into Mexico. Analysis of current forecast steering layers maps tends to indicate the remnant may be carried over into TX in about a week or so. Prior to this, a combination of an upper level system to the west of Texas, with moisture from the GOMEX, is forecast to bring a copious amount of rain to a portion of Texas. Given the forecast precipitation totals, it appears the remnant of T.D. 20E in the EPAC may add to the moisture over TX.
NAM 84 HOUR FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS
GFS 5 AND 7 DAY FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS
The global models are at it once again, with placing either a weak, closed low, or elongated low pressure trof over the GOMEX, south of the TX/LA area. I will be revisiting this as time draws near.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND WEST TX…in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. I will most likely update on this tomorrow.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS