TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…OCT. 20, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

The most recent area of disturbed weather, which had been located near the Yucatan peninsula, has moved over land, and is moving toward the west.  I expect this motion to continue for the next 24-36 hours.  Analysis of current close up satellite loop imagery indicates with current location, and forecast steering, the disturbed weather will most likely not exit into the BOC.  With this feature being over land, development should not occur, and is reflected in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
two_atl_5d0
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn-l

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE LOOP
latest_east_ir4_conus

Analysis of the recent 925 mb vorticity product from the PSU e-WALL also indicates the majority of energy over the area has transferred to the current PAC system, TD 20.

925 MB VORTICITY
over_17

One word of note on T.D. 20 in the EPAC…model guidance currently indicates the system to eventually curve northward, into Mexico.  Analysis of current forecast steering layers maps tends to indicate the remnant may be carried over into TX in about a week or so.  Prior to this, a combination of an upper level system to the west of Texas, with moisture from the GOMEX, is forecast to bring a copious amount of rain to a portion of Texas.  Given the forecast precipitation totals, it appears the remnant of T.D. 20E in the EPAC may add to the moisture over TX.

T.D. 20E GUIDANCE
aep20_2015102018_track_early

NAM 84 HOUR FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS
nam_namer_072_precip_ptot
GFS 5 AND 7 DAY FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS
GFS 5 dayPRECIP
GFS 7PRECIP
The global models are at it once again, with placing either a weak, closed low, or elongated low pressure trof over the GOMEX, south of the TX/LA area.  I will be revisiting this as time draws near.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has designated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PORTIONS OF NM AND WEST TX…in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.  I will most likely update on this tomorrow.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED)
day2otlk_1730

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 5:40 P.M. EDT…OCT. 20, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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