INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 18, 2015…ISSUED 3:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 92L

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Tropical disturbance INVEST 92L was located inland, just near the coast of the extreme SE portion of the BOC.  As of the 12Z ATCF FTP product information, the following was available on INVEST 92L:

Location: 18.6°N 92.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb/29.77 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

Based on the current layer mean steering, the disturbance should continue to remain inland, and should begin tracking more toward the WSW.  The current steering layers forecast maps indicate for this to occur for the next 36-48 hours, prior to more of a west motion.  This is reflected in what was available in the dynamic guidance forecast, showing a WSW to SW track, then westward into the EPAC.  At the time of analysis however, the consensus model tracks were not available.  Analysis of the global models indicate the majority of the modeling shows this, somewhat, but not all the way into the EPAC.  The  GFS, and CMC do bring it inland over Mexico, however indications are with the current forecast steering pattern, the models pull it, or an EPAC system, back into the GOMEX as a very weak low, riding near the TX coast, with the CMC toward the TX/LA border by around day 7 in today’s forecast period from 12Z.  The FIM 8 and FIM 9 models also bring this back to the GOMEX along the same place, but then move it east, then ESE in the GOMEX before dissipation.  However, the 12Z run of the ECMWF, which previously agreed with the other solutions, now dissipates the system over Mexico, which is probably the likely solution.  Based on the 2:00 p.m. update in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, cyclone development is no longer anticipated, based on the premise INVEST 92L will not emerge into the BOC.  To save space and time, I am only posting some of the model graphics.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
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GFS
GFS
CMC
CMC
FIM9
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18Z NCL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
98LNCL CONSENSUS
However, I will continue to monitor the area over Mexico/Yucatan peninsula area, as even though not shown in the current vorticity maps, there appears to be a definitive secondary circulation to the east of the INVEST.  It appears another center MAY be trying to come together near 18.0N;89.9 west, noted on close up VIS/IR satellite loop imagery from RAMSDIS.  One can see this by looking to the north and south of the convection just over the Yucatan peninsula, in noting the lower level clouds to the south, moving east, and clouds to the north, moving west.  For all intents and purposes however, the official INVEST should continue to move inland over Mexico.  I will continue to monitor the situation in the event the slow forward motion allows for the INVEST to be caught up in the change in steering around day 6.

INVEST 92L RAMSDIS FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
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Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 18, 2015…ISSUED 3:15 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm.

  2. dellamom says:

    All I can say is that this is consistent with the season so far. 🙂 Thank you, Storm for all you do for us.

  3. greg goodman says:

    Thankyou mr storm for the update.Mr storm what a weird hurricane season.

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