TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 92L
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*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Tropical disturbance INVEST 92L was located inland, just near the coast of the extreme SE portion of the BOC. As of the 12Z ATCF FTP product information, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
Location: 18.6°N 92.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb/29.77 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on the current layer mean steering, the disturbance should continue to remain inland, and should begin tracking more toward the WSW. The current steering layers forecast maps indicate for this to occur for the next 36-48 hours, prior to more of a west motion. This is reflected in what was available in the dynamic guidance forecast, showing a WSW to SW track, then westward into the EPAC. At the time of analysis however, the consensus model tracks were not available. Analysis of the global models indicate the majority of the modeling shows this, somewhat, but not all the way into the EPAC. The GFS, and CMC do bring it inland over Mexico, however indications are with the current forecast steering pattern, the models pull it, or an EPAC system, back into the GOMEX as a very weak low, riding near the TX coast, with the CMC toward the TX/LA border by around day 7 in today’s forecast period from 12Z. The FIM 8 and FIM 9 models also bring this back to the GOMEX along the same place, but then move it east, then ESE in the GOMEX before dissipation. However, the 12Z run of the ECMWF, which previously agreed with the other solutions, now dissipates the system over Mexico, which is probably the likely solution. Based on the 2:00 p.m. update in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, cyclone development is no longer anticipated, based on the premise INVEST 92L will not emerge into the BOC. To save space and time, I am only posting some of the model graphics.
18Z NCL DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
However, I will continue to monitor the area over Mexico/Yucatan peninsula area, as even though not shown in the current vorticity maps, there appears to be a definitive secondary circulation to the east of the INVEST. It appears another center MAY be trying to come together near 18.0N;89.9 west, noted on close up VIS/IR satellite loop imagery from RAMSDIS. One can see this by looking to the north and south of the convection just over the Yucatan peninsula, in noting the lower level clouds to the south, moving east, and clouds to the north, moving west. For all intents and purposes however, the official INVEST should continue to move inland over Mexico. I will continue to monitor the situation in the event the slow forward motion allows for the INVEST to be caught up in the change in steering around day 6.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS