TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: INVEST 92L
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*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 92L was designated at around 2:00 p.m. EDT this afternoon, by the NHC, and is added to the 5 day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.
As of the 18Z ATCF FTP product update, the following information was available on INVEST 92L (Note: Forward motion speed is estimated during the past 18 hours, based on the ATCF product)
Lat and Long information over the past 18 hours suggests the disturbance is moving WNW at approx. 275-280 degrees. Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue during the next 36-48 hours. After that, it appears to be up in the air, as the steering forecast maps diverge quite a bit, and analysis of the global models are somewhat divergent as well. However, of note about the global modeling, there is agreement among the models in dragging this system out, as in a very slow moving system. Tracks are anywhere from the GFS moving this system further to the west as a weak entity, then having it ride right on the Texas coast, and finally over the central TX coastline by next Sun., to the ECMWF showing a 985 MB system making landfall at the TX/LA border by next Sun. Based on this, it is really too early to tell which solution is going to be correct, given the discrepancy in the forecast steering models. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its performance on JOAQUIN, I cannot rule out that solution totally, at the moment. However, this will all be based on whether or not 92L makes it to the BOC during the next 72-120 hours as projected by the NHC GTWO. Model solutions for track guidance were not yet available at the time of my analysis being the guidance models were probably just initiated at 18Z…the time the INVEST was designated.
Analysis of the most recent wind shear product from CIMSS indicated the 200 mb pattern and upper level winds were conducive for slow development. The upper level wind pattern did indicate at the time, a fairly decent outflow pattern over the INVEST. As far as further organization and strength, if and when the INVEST enters the BOC, I am going to be watching the forecast shear pattern, until such time. IF the GFS shear forecast and track solution are correct, then upper level winds would be unfavorable for further development. IF the ECMWF is correct with a stronger system, this would indicate to me, a change in the wind shear pattern.
So, it’s pretty much one of those wait and see situations again, as it would not be wise to try and pinpoint “exactness”, with a system that doesn’t have a developed LLC, and is forecast to interact with land over the next few days.
I will be monitoring this system closely over the next few days, and will update when I possibly can.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS