TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Two areas of weather have popped up in the tropics. An area of disturbed weather is located in the extreme south, central Caribbean. Upper level winds are currently favorable over the area. Steering currents are currently weak, in a general WNW direction. Albeit upper level winds are forecast to remain fairly favorable over the next 72 hours, the recent forecast steering maps indicate this should move slowly westward into central America over the next few days. Hence, I am not expecting development. This does not appear to be the precursor of what the global models are indicating.
An area of disturbed weather is located south of the Cape Verde islands. Upper level winds are marginal at best, and are currently forecast to become non conducive for development within the next 36-48 hours.
I will continue to monitor both areas for any changes to the pattern.
Elsewhere, the majority of the global models are back again with the solution of developing an area of low pressure in the GOMEX in about 7-10 days. After backing off a couple days ago, the GFS is showing its previous solution, along with backing from the ECMWF. Again, in analyzing the model solutions this morning, there could be a problem with feedback, with a forecast EPAC system being so close to the area. The CMC keeps the low over the Yucatan peninsula, westward. However, upon analyzing model loops, I am not willing to rule out this development at this particular time. Careful analysis of the model loops tend to indicate the ECMWF brings this feature into the GOMEX from the PAC side. Seeing the the ECMWF performed well with JOAQUIN, this solution cannot be poo-pooed, as it backs up both the FIM8 and FIM9 model solutions, which indicate the same solution, and develop a sub-tropical system in the GOMEX.
The wind shear/200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS has been very persistent, in having the current upper level anticyclone, which is situated over the disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean, migrate westward, then become situated over the area where the development is forecast.
Another factor in the forecast, remains the MJO Index Forecast, where the GFS and ECMWF are still in agreement of the MJO traversing the area around the same time in the forecast period.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS