TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…OCT. 14. 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Two areas of weather have popped up in the tropics.  An area of disturbed weather is located in the extreme south, central Caribbean.  Upper level winds are currently favorable over the area.  Steering currents are currently weak, in a general WNW direction.  Albeit upper level winds are forecast to remain fairly favorable over the next 72 hours, the recent forecast steering maps indicate this should move slowly westward into central America over the next few days.  Hence, I am not expecting development.  This does not appear to be the precursor of what the global models are indicating.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

An area of disturbed weather is located south of the Cape Verde islands.  Upper level winds are marginal at best, and are currently forecast to become non conducive for development within the next 36-48 hours.

RAMSDIS METEOSAT 4 LOOP
tropical_met_4km_ir4_floater

I will continue to monitor both areas for any changes to the pattern.

Elsewhere, the majority of the global models are back again with the solution of developing an area of low pressure in the GOMEX in about 7-10 days.  After backing off a couple days ago, the GFS is showing its previous solution, along with backing from the ECMWF.  Again, in analyzing the model solutions this morning, there could be a problem with feedback, with a forecast EPAC system being so close to the area.  The CMC keeps the low over the Yucatan peninsula, westward.  However, upon analyzing model loops, I am not willing to rule out this development at this particular time.  Careful analysis of the model loops tend to indicate the ECMWF brings this feature into the GOMEX from the PAC side.  Seeing the the ECMWF performed well with JOAQUIN, this solution cannot be poo-pooed, as it backs up both the FIM8 and FIM9 model solutions, which indicate the same solution, and develop a sub-tropical system in the GOMEX.

GFS
GFS240
ECMWF
ECMWF240
CMC
CMC174
NAVGEM
slp30

FIM 8
fim8wind_10m_f192

FIM 9
FIM9wind_10m_f210

The wind shear/200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS has been very persistent, in having the current upper level anticyclone, which is situated over the disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean, migrate westward, then become situated over the area where the development is forecast. 

Another factor in the forecast, remains the MJO Index Forecast, where the GFS and ECMWF are still in agreement of the MJO traversing the area around the same time in the forecast period.

MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full

ECMF_phase_51m_full
I will continue to monitor future model runs for any changes over the next 5-7 days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…OCT. 14. 2015

  1. Bruce says:

    Glad to see someone is forecasting weather and not balls and strikes……. Snicker…..

  2. Greg Goodman says:

    Thankyou Mr storm looks like its not over until it is over.

  3. dellamom says:

    There’s a reason the season runs through November …

  4. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm. So “Maybe” one last “Hurrah” left in the season?

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