TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Satellite imagery once again shows quiet conditions in the tropics.
Analysis of the Global models this morning, indicated most of the models have backed off with the solution of development IVO SW Caribbean to the BOC. The GFS does still indicate a weak, elongated area of lower pressure over the BOC in about 8 days or so, with the ECMWF leaning more toward the EPAC side. TC genesis modeling does show a moderate probability of something in the EPAC in the 120-240 hour forecast frame. As far as the global models, there are 2 outliers…the CMC and the NAVGEM, with the CMC showing a 993 mb system in the BOC, and the NAVGEM showing a system just south of the western tip of Cuba. The FIM 8 model indicates the development of an EPAC system, however it takes the system and crosses it over to the BOC in the 10-12 day forecast period. Based on the trend of the ECMWF, and GFS over the past few days, I am a little more inclined to believe what may be occurring is, some of the modeling having trouble with handling a PAC system, and the forecast synoptic pattern, with high pressure building north of the Caribbean.
I will continue to monitor future model runs for any changes on this, as if I remember correctly, some of the models showed somewhat of the same solutions, prior to the development of JOAQUIN. IF my memory serves me right, model solutions for the most part were all over the place. I cannot totally rule out the possibility of the BOC or extreme SW Caribbean area, given that the MJO index forecast has been pretty consistent at moving the MJO into octants 8 and 1 (or phase 8 and 1 of the MJO) for the past few days. It’s rare to see the GFS and ECMWF in fair agreement with the MJO.
Should the tropics remain slow, I may begin posting severe weather forecasts and cold weather items again, beginning the switch back from Tropical Weather.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS