TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 12, 2015…10:50 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Satellite imagery once again shows quiet conditions in the tropics.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP WIDE VIEW
avn-l

Analysis of the Global models this morning, indicated most of the models have backed off with the solution of development IVO SW Caribbean to the BOC.  The GFS does still indicate a weak, elongated area of lower pressure over the BOC in about 8 days or so, with the ECMWF leaning more toward the EPAC side.  TC genesis modeling does show a moderate probability of something in the EPAC in the 120-240 hour forecast frame.  As far as the global models, there are 2 outliers…the CMC and the NAVGEM, with the CMC showing a 993 mb system in the BOC, and the NAVGEM showing a system just south of the western tip of Cuba.  The FIM 8 model indicates the development of an EPAC system, however it takes the system and crosses it over to the BOC in the 10-12 day forecast period.  Based on the trend of the ECMWF, and GFS over the past few days, I am a little more inclined to believe what may be occurring is, some of the modeling having trouble with handling a PAC system, and the forecast synoptic pattern, with high pressure building north of the Caribbean.

CMC SOLUTION
CMC240
NAVGEM SOLUTION
navg.2015101712.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

FIM 8 SOLUTION
wind_10m_f156

wind_10m_f288

I will continue to monitor future model runs for any changes on this, as if I remember correctly, some of the models showed somewhat of the same solutions, prior to the development of JOAQUIN.  IF my memory serves me right, model solutions for the most part were all over the place.  I cannot totally rule out the possibility of the BOC or extreme SW Caribbean area, given that the MJO index forecast has been pretty consistent at moving the MJO into octants 8 and 1 (or phase 8 and 1 of the MJO) for the past few days.  It’s rare to see the GFS and ECMWF in fair agreement with the MJO.

MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full

ECMF_phase_51m_full
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Should the tropics remain slow,  I may begin posting severe weather forecasts and cold weather items again, beginning the switch back from Tropical Weather.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 12, 2015…10:50 A.M. EDT

  1. Greg Goodman says:

    That you Mr storm for the update.things have slow down in the tropics.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, always check your site everyday to see whats going on, in a calm and factual manor. There is so much sensationalism, and “Agenda Driven” stuff on Twitter, ETC. You “Tell it like it is”!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. Quiet is good.

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