TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
Just a quick side note…we currently sit at 10-3-2 as far as totals. The long term “average” for a season is 10-6-2. Not bad for a strong El Nino episode.
An area of disturbed weather is located north of the Lesser Antilles.
The current upper level pattern indicates upper level winds to be marginally conducive at the moment. However, the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable during the next 36 hours. Analysis of mid level wind barbs show this to be a weak tropical wave. I do not expect development of this area.
Elsewhere, analysis of global models this evening still shows most of the models developing low pressure IVO the extreme SW Caribbean, in about 7-10 days. The ECMWF dose not indicate this at the moment, and shows only an elongated area of low pressure over the land areas of the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico. The GFS, CMC, FIM8 and FIM9 vary in their timing solutions, but are in agreement of development around that area. It is noted the GFS has put out a weaker solution, with the CMC being a little more bullish (which has been one of it’s “faults” over past seasons). Both FIM models seem to be close in agreement on intensity and general formation area. I will be interested in the ECMWF solutions over the next few days, to see if it takes an interest. The possibility does exist that the GFS may have some feedback issues, as it has been notorious for this in past seasons this time of the season. However, I cannot totally rule out development at the moment.
The current 200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS (which I have noted over the past few seasons, has the tendency to forecast the 200 mb pattern better than it does cyclogenesis) indicates the upper level pattern may be somewhat conducive for some development, although not optimal. In addition, the ECMWF Ensemble and GFS Ensemble are in good agreement of the MJO being in the area during this time, albeit with a variance in the strength of the signal, based on the MJO Index forecast.
I will continue to monitor future model runs for any changes on this.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS