TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:10 P.M. EDT…OCT. 08, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: NONE

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!
Just a quick side note…we currently sit at 10-3-2 as far as totals.  The long term “average” for a season is 10-6-2.  Not bad for a strong El Nino episode.

An area of disturbed weather is located north of the Lesser Antilles.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP
avn-l

The current upper level pattern indicates upper level winds to be marginally conducive at the moment.  However, the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable during the next 36 hours.  Analysis of mid level wind barbs show this to be a weak tropical wave.  I do not expect development of this area.

Elsewhere, analysis of global models this evening still shows most of the models developing low pressure IVO the extreme SW Caribbean, in about 7-10 days.  The ECMWF dose not indicate this at the moment, and shows only an elongated area of low pressure over the land areas of the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico.  The GFS, CMC, FIM8 and FIM9 vary in their timing solutions, but are in agreement of development around that area.  It is noted the GFS has put out a weaker solution, with the CMC being a little more bullish (which has been one of it’s “faults” over past seasons).  Both FIM models seem to be close in agreement on intensity and general formation area.  I will be interested in the ECMWF solutions over the next few days, to see if it takes an interest. The possibility does exist that the GFS may have some feedback issues, as it has been notorious for this in past seasons this time of the season.  However, I cannot totally rule out development at the moment. 

ECMWF
ECMWF
GFS
GFS192
GFS240
CMC
CMC240
FIM8
FIM8wind_10m_f210

FIM9
FIM9wind_10m_f210

The current 200 mb streamline forecast from the GFS (which I have noted over the past few seasons, has the tendency to forecast the 200 mb pattern better than it does cyclogenesis) indicates the upper level pattern may be somewhat conducive for some development, although not optimal.  In addition, the ECMWF Ensemble and GFS Ensemble are in good agreement of the MJO being in the area during this time, albeit with a variance in the strength of the signal, based on the MJO Index forecast.

MJO INDEX FORECAST
NCPE_phase_21m_full
ECMF_phase_51m_full

I will continue to monitor future model runs for any changes on this.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 8:10 P.M. EDT…OCT. 08, 2015

  1. Monty says:

    Agreed storm. This is whackadoo for this strong of an El Nino.

  2. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm. I hope your weekend is pleasant and dry. Greg, I am cautiously optimistic for the rest of the season, but as we all know, it only takes one, it doesn’t need to be a big one to cause a lot of damage, and this is one of the few situations where “close” can be as dangerous as “exactly.” Thank God we have Storm.

  3. Greg Goodman says:

    Mr storm a great update as usual. Mr storm I guess we have to be on guard a little longer. Mr storm this has been a weird hurricane season.

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