TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: JOAQUIN
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Just a quick side note…we currently sit at 10-3-2 as far as totals. The long term “average” for a season is 10-6-2. Not bad for a strong El Nino episode.
Hurricane JOAQUIN was downgraded to tropical storm status, and continues to move eastward.
NHC TRACKING MAP
Elsewhere, the tropics have pretty much settled down for the moment. Analysis of the Global Models this morning indicate the GFS “holding on” to its “system”, in which it indicates low pressure beginning to take shape within the next 8 days, down in the SW Caribbean. Granted this is in the medium range, however we will be approaching the portion of the season of the “second peak”, which occurs in October.
1.) The stalling of a frontal boundary in the GOMEX, or off the U.S. east coast.
2.) The development of higher pressure to the north of the GOMEX/W. Caribbean, thereby lowering pressure over the GOMEX or W. Caribbean.
3.) Extension of the Monsoon Trough from the EPAC, eastward into the area.
The Global models do forecast a trof to dip south, however IF this occurs, it may be due to the monsoon trof nosing in over the area. The GFS does develop this in the longer range, and I will have to see if the other models within the medium range pick up on this, as we get further out in the forecast period. I did notice in analysis this morning, that this low may even have it’s beginnings at around day 5 in the period from 00Z yesterday evening, based on the modeling from the NOAA NCEP TC Genesis product, which consists of the following 7 models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, FIM 8, FIM 9, NAVGEM, and ECMWF), indicate the presence of some type of disturbed weather just north of the coast of Panama, at around day 5.
NOAA NCEP TC GENESIS MODELS
The forecast wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern forecast from the 12Z run of the GFS, does indicate the upper level pattern to become slowly more conducive for development at 120 hours, and is forecast to become more conducive thereafter.
I know a lot of folks don’t like him, however I learned a good amount of my forecasting technique from him…WeatherBell Analytics Met. Joe Bastardi does point out the “pattern” could very well support the solution. Click on the video link (daily update 10/7), and forward to around 2:05 in the video.
WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS VIDEO
The GFS and ECMWF MJO Index phase diagram forecasts still indicate a weak MJO signal entering Octants 8 and 1 around the same time frame.
So, based on climatology, and the thus far “limited” supporting factors, I cannot totally rule out another development at this time. I will however be looking for consistency with the GFS, and for other model support as we get further out in the period, especially from the ECMWF.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS