TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EDT…OCT. 07, 2015

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: JOAQUIN

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good day everyone!

Just a quick side note…we currently sit at 10-3-2 as far as totals.  The long term “average” for a season is 10-6-2.  Not bad for a strong El Nino episode.

Hurricane JOAQUIN was downgraded to tropical storm status, and continues to move eastward.

JOAQUIN FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP
avn0-lalo

NHC TRACKING MAP
144210W5_NL_sm

Elsewhere, the tropics have pretty much settled down for the moment.  Analysis of the Global Models this morning indicate the GFS “holding on” to its “system”, in which it indicates low pressure beginning to take shape within the next 8 days, down in the SW Caribbean.  Granted this is in the medium range, however we will be approaching the portion of the season of the “second peak”, which occurs in October.

GFS
GFS198
GFS240
GFS288
As waters begin to cool and wind shear increase in the Atlantic, we begin to shift our attention westward.  During the month of Oct., we can see development in three different ways:

1.) The stalling of a frontal boundary in the GOMEX, or off the U.S. east coast.

2.) The development of higher pressure to the north of the GOMEX/W. Caribbean, thereby lowering pressure over the GOMEX or W. Caribbean.

3.) Extension of the Monsoon Trough from the EPAC, eastward into the area.

The Global models do forecast a trof to dip south, however IF this occurs, it may be due to the monsoon trof nosing in over the area.  The GFS does develop this in the longer range, and I will have to see if the other models within the medium range pick up on this, as we get further out in the forecast period.  I did notice in analysis this morning, that this low may even have it’s beginnings at around day 5 in the period from 00Z yesterday evening, based on the modeling from the NOAA NCEP TC Genesis product, which consists of the following 7 models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, FIM 8, FIM 9, NAVGEM, and ECMWF), indicate the presence of some type of disturbed weather just north of the coast of Panama, at around day 5.

NOAA NCEP TC GENESIS MODELS

GFS
gfs2.2015100912.060.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

UKMET
ukm2.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

CMC
cmc2.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

FIM 8
fim8.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

FIM9
rtfim9.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

NAVGEM
navg.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

ECMWF
ecm2.2015101212.132.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker

The forecast wind shear/200 mb streamline pattern forecast from the 12Z run of the GFS, does indicate the upper level pattern to become slowly more conducive for development at 120 hours, and is forecast to become more conducive thereafter.

I know a lot of folks don’t like him, however I learned a good amount of my forecasting technique from him…WeatherBell Analytics Met. Joe Bastardi does point out the “pattern” could very well support the solution.  Click on the video link (daily update 10/7), and forward to around 2:05 in the video.

WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS VIDEO
http://www.weatherbell.com/

The GFS and ECMWF MJO Index phase diagram forecasts still indicate a weak MJO signal entering Octants 8 and 1 around the same time frame.

So, based on climatology, and the thus far “limited” supporting factors, I cannot totally rule out another development at this time.  I will however be looking for consistency with the GFS, and for other model support as we get further out in the period, especially from the ECMWF.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EDT…OCT. 07, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks, Storm, and thanks for the “hook-up” to Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell. Interesting.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  3. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm.

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