TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: JOAQUIN, 90L, 91L, CATL AOI (AREA OF INTEREST)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 10
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
Just a quick side note…we currently sit at 10-3-2 as far as totals. The long term “average” for a season is 10-6-2. Not bad for a strong El Nino episode.
Hurricane Joaquin continues to move away from Bermuda. As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on JOAQUIN:
11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 5
Location: 35.0°N 64.6°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb / 28.47 in
Max sustained: 85 mph
Weakening has seemed to have slowed, or stopped temporarily. the most recent wind shear product from CIMSS indicates upper level winds to be marginally favorable, with narrow, semi-ridging north of the storm. A notable outflow jet can be seen with the upper level wind overlay, confined to the eastern periphery of the storm. This should allow JOAQUIN to remain Status Quo, or close to it, for approximately the next 24-30 hours, before the hurricane begins to move over cooler water, and merges with a baroclinic system. Of note however, the 5:00 a.m. forecast discussion from the NHC in Miami, indicated that tropical storm force winds had been expanded outward based on earlier ASCAT data. When the wind field begins to expand as such, it is usually a sign that a storm is beginning to transition to extra, or post tropical. In any case, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity. As the storm begins to transition, we should see a very notable expansion of the wind field.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 35.0N 64.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 36.3N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 38.0N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 39.3N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 42.5N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 44.0N 21.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 45.1N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
JOAQUIN continues to move toward the NNE in the short term, with a turn to the ENE expected in about 24 hours. This is pretty much progged by forecast steering, and the dynamic track guidance.
Given that JOAQUIN is clearing Bermuda, I will be making this my last post on the system, unless something arises that needs to be passed about the storm.
The mid-upper level low that has been plaguing the Carolina’s area, should begin to move toward the NE in about 18-24 hours. Conditions should begin to improve as this takes place. Prayers are with you.
Elsewhere, INVEST 90L and 91L do not appear to have changed much. In fact, some of the satellite imagery seems to be behind in updates, which is a little confusing in which area is 91L. Based on my analysis however, the probability of either area developing has decreased, based on the current wind shear forecast. Upper level winds are somewhat favorable (at time of analysis), however are forecast to become unfavorable for development in about 24 -30 hours. I will continue to monitor these areas however, for any significant changes.
There is a new area that I am interested in, located near 9.5N;34.0W. Upper level winds at time of analysis were favorable for slow organization of this area. Current shear forecast indicates upper level winds to remain favorable during the next 18-24 hours, before becoming marginal. I will be monitoring this area as it moves in a general westward direction, for the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, the GFS appears to be on some sort of steroid. It is the ONLY model showing this solution at the moment. Analysis of the 06Z run shows the GFS with a low beginning in the SW Caribbean, near Panama/Nicaragua at around 198 hours out from 06Z. It then begins to move it northward, and brings it over the BAHAMAS as a strong Tropical Storm/Minimal Hurricane. I am not buying this yet, as none of the other modeling indicates this. I will say one thing however…as far fetched as the solution may seem, I will keep a close eye on model runs, as both the NCEP GFS ENSEMBLE and ECMWF ENSEMBLE MJO Index Phase Diagram forecasts call for a weak signal from the MJO to be in place around the time-frame of this “ghost” system.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS