MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…OCT 01, 2015

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 10
HURRICANES: 3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 2
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

NOTE:  I will not be including INVEST 90L in this synopsis, as Hurricane JOAQUIN is taking center stage.  9OL is nowhere organized at the moment.

Hurricane JOAQUIN has pretty much undergone a Rapid Intensification cycle.  JOAQUIN is now a CATEGORY 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  As of the 2:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on JOAQUIN:

2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 23.0°N 74.2°W
Moving: SW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 936 mb / 27.64 in
Max sustained: 130 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC.ELEVEN

HURREVAC.ELEVEN72

Based on my analysis of satellite loop images, JOAQUIN appears to be much better  organized, with a better defined CDO, well defined eye, and improved banding around the storm.

JOAQUIN FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
avn0-lalo

rgb0-lalo

RAMSDIS FLOATER LOOP IMAGES
tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

The current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates an upper level anticyclone just to his NNW.  Albeit not exactly over the top of the hurricane, outflow appears to be excellent around all quadrants of the storm.  This is pretty much verified by the most recent upper level wind product, which indicates an excellent outflow channel around the eastern periphery, and NW periphery of the hurricane.

JOAQUIN WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
tccaptureshearJOAQUIN

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
tccaptureUPPER

The current wind shear forecast / 200 mb streamline forecast still calls for conditions to become more favorable for further strengthening, with the upper level anticyclone becoming situated almost directly over the center of the hurricane within the next 24-36 hours.  This would allow for further intensification, and based on this premise, I concur with the NHC forecast intensity at the moment, which is pretty much in agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM forecasts.  Analysis of the recent wind shear magnitude forecast indicates in about 18 hours, wind shear is forecast to drop to around 5-10 knots, with conditions remaining favorable through 42 hours out in the forecast period from 12Z this morning.  Soon after, wind shear is forecast to once again increase, and should begin to weaken the hurricane.  The one caveat presented by the NHC is, some of the models indicate there could be a very good divergent pattern at around 96 hours in the period,and JOAQUIN could be stronger than forecast.  However at this particular moment, based on analysis of the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline forecast, I have to concur with the weakening trend presented by the NHC.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

Now we come to the problem.  We still have no accurate dynamic model guidance, and models have a very wide spread in the 18Z dynamic guidance.  It is noted however, that the GFS, and the more relied upon TVCC, TVCN, TVCA consensus models have shifted to the right (east) of where they had been for the previous 3-4 runs, and somewhat more in line with the ECMWF solution of steering JOAQUIN away from the U.S.  However, there is still some degree of uncertainty in this. 

18Z ATCF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
JOAQUIN 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

What the models have been struggling with is, the development of the trof to the WNW of the system, over the GOMEX, and how the forecast cutoff low develops.  What the thinking of the models is now, the cutoff captures JOAQUIN, and keeps in in this weakness through about 72 hours or so.  Pressure heights remain a little higher to his NNE to E, meaning he cannot escape right away.  As the forecast period extends beyond that, modeling show the pressure heights begin to fall N and NE of him, allowing for the trof to become the steering feature, hence the curve to the right.  Again, in the NHC forecast discussion, the uncertainties are listed.  There is one new caveat however, being that JOAQUIN is now a CATEGORY 4 Hurricane, he may be performing a process (now don’t laugh) what some of us meteorologist refer to as “pumping the ridge”.  This means, that the hurricane is strong enough, that the outflow in the upper levels is strong enough to pump out a tremendous amount of latent heat.  This amount of latent heat released into the upper atmosphere, will have the tendency to somewhat reinforce any ridging directly northward of the hurricane.  This only occurs in CAT4 and CAT5 storms.  This may be occurring as we speak, as close analysis of water vapor loop imagery seems to indicate to me, some reinforcement.  This may be why in the last few frames of the satellite loop imagery, the eye continues to move on a westward trajectory.  I cannot rule out that the center could make it to 75W, prior to any turn.  When the turn occurs, I feel it may be more toward the NNW in the beginning, as the hurricane seems to be eroding the southern portion of the trof, which would allow for the hurricane to head more toward the stronger portion, more of a weakness if you will.  In any event, although the probability of JOAQUIN curving toward the NE has increased, given the uncertainty, I have to go with the NHC official forecast track at the moment, until better information from both the dynamic guidance, and forecast steering maps can be obtained.  I really wish I had a more accurate solution for you.  I am hoping we get better information from the G4 flight, and numerous balloon launches over the SEUS.  The following maps will give you some idea on what I meant by the cutoff low/ridge relationship.

GFS 500 MB HEIGHTS FORECAST
gfs 500mb 60hours

gfs 500mb 96hours

Based on this dilemma, residents along the U.S. east coast should monitor this hurricane closely, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements.  I do not know when I’ll update again, so please use the NWS Hazards map for your area regarding NWS Statements and warnings, as well as the NHC

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

NHC HOME PAGE
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED 4:30 P.M. EDT…OCT 01, 2015

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, was away for a bit, Friday and most of Sat. Just got back, Reading what you posted, I think you nailed it pretty well with your main post of Oct. 1st, a move to the right(Northeast) with this storm and not “hooking” back into the Carolinas. Well Done! That burst to 150mph, on Sat morning was a surprise though! 🙂

  2. Martha says:

    Storm, we are in Wilmington NC and is there a chance that it can take a sharp left like we were expecting hugo and it went into Charleston. We always watch until completely gone. I know that a model run is just a model the storms have a mind of their own. Just asking

    • Martha…I don’t think he will…the dynamic models have pretty much come together on what the ECMWF was showing 2 days ago. NWS offices along the SE US coast have been sending balloons up 4 times a day, vice 2 times a day, and NOAA has been flying 2 G4 flights a day. The info collected has been fed into the guidance computers, so the track forecast should be good.

    • dellamom says:

      Martha, I hope you and yours are safe

  3. dellamom says:

    God bless the Islanders in his path, as well. They have nowhere to run.

  4. dellamom says:

    God bless the East Coast. I missed one little day of forecasts and came back to find a Cat 4!!!
    Well, maybe a day and a half. Thank you, Storm for telling us the forecast, the possibilities and your thoughts, with understandable explanations.

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