ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 9
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good evening everyone!
First, this update is just to provide you with one plausible scenario. There is no need for action at this time, and no reason for panic or anxiety. Again, the following parameters could change quickly, and this update is to make you aware of what COULD occur.
In analyzing various forecast products throughout the day, and this evening, should forecast conditions pan out, it appears as if Tropical Depression ELEVEN may (I reiterate may) have a better chance at attaining Tropical; Storm status. First, the following information was available from the NHC in the 5:00 p.m. advisory:
5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28
Location: 27.5°N 70.2°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Based on the NHC advisory, the estimated central pressure has dropped slightly. IF this trend continues, the depression could be trying to attain T.S. status
Based on the most recent satellite loop imagery, it appears the exposed LLC may have nudged closer to the convection to its SE.
The recent wind shear product from CIMSS at 2100Z indicates shear may have backed of slightly, thus it may be pushing the convection to the SE a little less. It is unknown at the moment, whether this is temporary, or if it is the beginning of the trend, forecast by most of the global modeling, for wind shear values to relax to a favorable level in about 42-48 hours. The 18Z wind shear forecast map, and 200 mb streamline product indicate somewhat of an upper level anticyclone to develop over the depression around that time frame.
WIND SHEAR FORECAST 18Z RUN
200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
Save any major dry air intrusion, and provided SST’s are warm enough, based on analysis of the above, we could see Tropical Storm Joaquin within the next 24 hours.
The information in the NHC forecast discussion does bring the depression to storm status, and the recent Intensity Forecast Guidance brings it to around 50-60 mph…tops. Again, this intensity product should be considered preliminary at the moment, until we see how conditions pan out.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 27.5N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 27.9N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.3N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 38.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
Based on earlier satellite loop imagery, the LLC was moving slowly west. However recent analysis of the steering layers product indicates a more WNW motion should begin occurring. Given the motion toward the west this afternoon into, the NHC forecast track was shifted more toward the left, and the 18Z dynamic guidance took a further shift toward the left. So, right now, if everything remains Status Quo, there are 2 plausible scenarios as far as track…the system passes slightly east of the DE/NJ coastline, or it hooks further left, and crosses over the NJ area. Again, this can change.
Based on this premise, there could be some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding if everything comes together as forecast. The following are the most recent sea height and wind graphics from STORMSURF, based on the 12Z run.
I work tomorrow and Wed., so I will not have another update probably until Thurs.
Please use the map below to obtain up to date information for your area, from your local NWS office.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS