SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE…TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN…ISSUED 8:30 P.M. EDT..SEP. 28, 2015

ALL forecasts contained on this site,  are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.

*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period.  My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE.  This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development.  Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.

Please refer to the link for the Storm Prediction Center in the box at the top of the page, just below the Hurricane Hunter graphics.

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  For those not aware, donations to my site help me offset my personal out of pocket expenses…such as some of the model maps you view on here, are only available due to my subscription to the corresponding site.  The F5 Data maps I post, also another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), and costs for my domain name are also out of pocket to me.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Although it may seem I am not here and working in support of your donation, I have to work my forecasting time around my ever changing work schedule.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:

TOTAL STORMS: 9
HURRICANES: 2
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2

StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:

TOTAL STORMS:             8
HURRICANES:                   3
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1

Good evening everyone!

First, this update is just to provide you with one plausible scenario.  There is no need for action at this time, and no reason for panic or anxiety.  Again, the following parameters could change quickly, and this update is to make you aware of what COULD occur.

In analyzing various forecast products throughout the day, and this evening, should forecast conditions pan out, it appears as if Tropical Depression ELEVEN may (I reiterate may) have a better chance at attaining Tropical; Storm status.  First, the following information was available from the NHC in the 5:00 p.m. advisory:

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28

Location: 27.5°N 70.2°W
Moving: W at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC NHC TRACKING MAPS
HURREVAC.ELEVEN

HURREVAC.ELEVEN72

HURREVAC.ELEVENWINDPROB

Based on the NHC advisory, the estimated central pressure has dropped slightly.  IF this trend continues, the depression could be trying to attain T.S. status

Based on the most recent satellite loop imagery, it appears the exposed LLC may have nudged closer to the convection to its SE.

TD ELEVEN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
avn0ELEVEN-lalo

rgb0TD ELEVEN-lalo

The recent wind shear product from CIMSS at 2100Z indicates shear may have backed of slightly, thus it may be pushing the convection to the SE a little less.  It is unknown at the moment, whether this is temporary, or if it is the beginning of the trend, forecast by most of the global modeling, for wind shear values to relax to a favorable level in about 42-48 hours.  The 18Z wind shear forecast map, and 200 mb streamline product indicate somewhat of an upper level anticyclone to develop over the depression around that time frame.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR
tccaptureshearTD11

WIND SHEAR FORECAST 18Z RUN
850200shear7
200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
200 mb streamline
Save any major dry air intrusion, and provided SST’s are warm enough, based on analysis of the above, we could see Tropical Storm Joaquin within the next 24 hours.

The information in the NHC forecast discussion does bring the depression to storm status, and the recent Intensity Forecast Guidance brings it to around 50-60 mph…tops.  Again, this intensity product should be considered preliminary at the moment, until we see how conditions pan out.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 27.5N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.7N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 
24H 29/1800Z 27.9N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.3N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 28.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 38.5N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

 Based on earlier satellite loop imagery, the LLC was moving slowly west.  However recent analysis of the steering layers product indicates a more WNW motion should begin occurring.  Given the motion toward the west this afternoon into, the NHC forecast track was shifted more toward the left, and the 18Z dynamic guidance took a further shift toward the left.  So, right now, if everything remains Status Quo, there are 2 plausible scenarios as far as track…the system passes slightly east of the DE/NJ coastline, or it hooks further left, and crosses over the NJ area.  Again, this can change.

ATCF TD ELEVEN 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AND TREND
TD11 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE

TD11 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE model trend

Based on this premise, there could be some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding if everything comes together as forecast.  The following are the most recent sea height and wind graphics from STORMSURF, based on the 12Z run.

STORMSURF SEA HEIGHT AND WIND FORECAST LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK ON IMAGES)
nj_sea_37

nj_wind_45

I work tomorrow and Wed., so I will not have another update probably until Thurs.

Please use the map below to obtain up to date information for your area, from your local NWS office.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY (CLICK ON AREA OF INTEREST)
US

NWS DOPPLER RADAR
latest_Small

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER  

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE…TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN…ISSUED 8:30 P.M. EDT..SEP. 28, 2015

  1. Hi gang! I will have a full update on Joaquin probably sometime this afternoon. Have some personal business to take care of this morning. Besides work this past few days, just been waiting for models to get it together. Looked at early morning stuff, and think I’ve found what the Euro has been suggesting. So, I’ll point that out in graphics today, along with my synopsis.

  2. David says:

    Hi, Storm. Wondering if you are going to have a forecast out soon? I know work hours are rough, and your forecasts take a lot of time, but we’ve got a rather huge storm, doing strange things (Cat 3, moving South, possible retrograde into US East Coast, plus huge divergence between GFS and Euro), we really NEED your input and insights! Any chance of getting an update for we nightbirds?

    God bless and be well,
    David

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Slammed this out to the WATL gang. Looks like a beauty. Wow!!

  4. dellamom says:

    Thank you, Storm, and prayers to all in the path of whatever this ends up as.

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