TROPICAL STORM FORMATION: IDA, 98L (50%), 99L (30%)
ALL forecasts contained on this site, are based on my analysis and knowledge of various forecast tools, including information contained in NHC products, and are not copies from any other entity.
*NOTE: In the TROPICAL STORM FORMATION line above, probabilities are for during the next 5 day period. My personal probability will be listed as either NONE, MONITORING or PROBABLE. This does not necessarily mean something will develop, but that certain forecast conditions are likely to be present, for development. Once NHC products become available, then the appropriate probability and percentage will be used.
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Current Storm Total for 2015:
TOTAL STORMS: 9
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
U.S. LANDFALLS: 2
StormW’s Seasonal Forecast:
TOTAL STORMS: 8
INTENSE HURRICANES: 1
Good day everyone!
The NHC is still following Tropical Depression IDA. The following information was in the 5:00 a.m. advisory:
5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 27
Location: 24.3°N 48.0°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
IDA is now moving west, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 72-96 hours.
Very briefly, satellite imagery shows that the LLC of the depression is exposed and now elongated. Upper level winds are forecast to increase. I pretty much still expect the depression to degenerate within this time period, if not sooner, in agreement with the NHC forecast discussion.
IDA FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Elsewhere, INVEST 98L has become a little better looking in satellite imagery today. A LLC did develop yesterday evening, and albeit not well defined on satellite loop imagery, it is in close proximity to the convection to the east. This area of disturbed weather is located approximately 425 miles SSW of Bermuda. Upper level winds are marginal at the moment, at least at the time of analysis, and further development should be slow to occur. The NHC has designated a MEDIUM (50%) probability of cyclone formation over the next 5 days. Based on current and forecast steering, this area should continue on a NW motion for the next 2-3 days, before a more northward motion takes place.
During analysis of the global model solutions, it appears this may travel close enough to the U.S., to help trigger a possible coastal development next week, which I will touch on at the end of this synopsis.
INVEST 99L was located SOMEWHERE near the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The following information was available from the ATCF FTP product:
8:00 am EDT Sat Sep 26
Location: 19.0°N 88.2°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb / 29.77 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
I threw in SOMEWHERE, as based on close analysis of various satellite loop channels, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint any type of circulation center. However the given location does appear to have a weak circulation present.
Looking at the current wind shear product, the situation has changed, in that this system is still being blasted by 30-35 knots of SWLY wind shear. This change is being produced by the ULL that is over Texas, which has dug in a little deeper, and is moving slowly toward the NE in tandem with 99L, keeping shear in place. NHC has lowered the probability of cyclone formation during the next 5 days to LOW (30%)
The recent wind shear forecast is not as promising as it was 12 hours ago. So, this INVEST may remain under SW shear for the remainder of the forecast period. Based on this, I do not foresee any type of significant organization at the moment, unless there is an abrupt change in the shear forecast. This area could however, bring some significant amounts of rain to coastal areas of the eastern GOMEX over the next 72 hours.
The INVEST is moving to the north near 10 mph, and I expect this motion through today. A turn toward the NNE is expected after that, based on analysis of current forecast steering solutions. This is shown in the 12Z dynamic guidance, to which I prefer the TVCN/TVCC tracks.
I will continue to monitor this INVEST for any significant changes.
As I mentioned previously 98L and 99L may play a role in some type of coastal storm near the end of next week, off the eastern seaboard. Some of the global models indicate this, with the remnant of 98L being the trigger, with left over energy from 99L. This in turn supposedly creates a small coastal storm, which phased with a 500 mb trof.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS